Arete Capital (
@Crypto_McKenna) just released their 2026
$HYPE valuation outlook:
1. Revenue
- Q3’25 annualized: $1.13B
- Growth drivers: HyperCore (+$415M), Builder Codes (+$154M), Aligned Stablecoins (+$88M), HIP-3 markets (+$80M)
-> EOY ’26 annualized revenue: $1.87B (+65%)
2. Supply dynamics
- HIP-3 operators: 4–12 exchanges × 500K HYPE → 2–6M HYPE staked
- Aligned stablecoins: 1–3 issuers × 1M HYPE → 1–3M HYPE staked
- Assistance Fund: 100% of annual revenue used for buybacks (~41.6M HYPE)
- Hyperliquid Strategies Inc: $305M in cash allocated (~6.8M HYPE)
-> Ready-for-sale float projected to shrink to ~220M HYPE
3. Valuation
- FY26E Revenue: $1.87B
- Circulating Mkt Cap (@$45): $17.3B
- P/E: 9.1x (circulating) / 5.3x (ready-for-sale)
-> At $45,
$HYPE trades below 10x forward earnings. A market re-rating to 15–20× implies $75–$100 range.
4. Takeaway
- As Builder Codes, HIP-3, and USDH revenues kick in,
$HYPE enters its profitability era:
~$1.9B rev / <10× P/E / $23–33B mkt cap range looks entirely reasonable.
- packed with alpha. if you’re following Hyperliquid, it’s a must read.