Thanks for the positive review, @WendellMinnick! I miss covering the Zhuhai Airshow with you. Glad to attend 4 of them, where I sure learned a lot: andrewerickson.com/2021/07/t… Here are the key points from my @RiceUniversity/@BakerInstitute report—"Annexation of #Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US & Its Allies Could Not Retreat"—w/ Gabe Collins @CES_Baker_Inst: bakerinstitute.org/research/… A full-text PDF is available for free here: bakerinstitute.org/sites/def…

🚢 🇨🇳#PRC MARITIME SEARCH & RESCUE (EAST CHINA SEA)? 🛟 According to information from @StarboardIntel & analyzed by #SeaLight, five #China Coast Guard ships (2203, 2204, 2301, 2501 & 2503) have been involved in what appear to be continuous SAR activities in a box around 36.26N/123.10E, approximately 20 km northeast of Liangxiongdi Island, Zhejiang Province since 30 Oct 2025. We have not yet been able to locate any incident data for this date. #OSINT

On Aug 4, two electronic surveillance alarms at Serbia’s Criminal Sanctions Enforcement Directorate went off at almost the same time — first at 00:43 and then at 00:54 — signaling that the electronic monitoring devices on 🇨🇳 Cui Guanghai and 🇬🇧 John Miller, two foreign nationals who were put on house arrest and whose extraditions were sought by the US, had been damaged. About an hour after the alarms went off, at 01:56 local time, a private plane — a Gulfstream G550 — of 🇨🇳 Deer Jet (金鹿公务), the business aviation division of 🇨🇳 HNA Aviation Group, took off from Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport. The plane landed in Beijing nine and a half hours later. A coincidence? The fact that the alarms were activated almost simultaneously at two different addresses and Cui and Miller had disappeared without a trace indicates a synchronized and carefully prepared plan. Cui and Miller reportedly had access to mobile phones and the Internet during house arrest. dailymail.co.uk/news/article… birn.rs/beg-kineskog-agenta-… birn.rs/cuj-i-miler-imali-mo…

Three days ago, China Coast Guard vessel 2302 began patrolling a new area off of Taiwan's NW coast, near the ferry routes connecting Taiwan's outlying Matsu Islands to Keelung. Taiwan Coast Guard vessel CG127 has remained close during this time. Using @MarineTraffic AIS data, our visualization shows the last 24 hours of available activity from CGA 2302 and CG127, overlayed onto a map of the Keelung-Matsu ferry routes.

“This is China positioning itself as a global superpower. We’re in the initial phases of a new arms race. China is already sprinting and they’re preparing for a marathon.” China has undertaken a massive expansion of sites linked to missile production since 2020, bolstering its ability to potentially deter the US military and assert its dominance in the region. The historic build-up stands in stark contrast to the United States’ own supply struggles. More than 60% of 136 facilities connected to missile production or the Chinese military’s rocket force, which controls China’s nuclear arsenal, showed signs of expansion in satellite images. The sites, which include factories as well as research and testing centers, have expanded by more than 21 million square feet (over 2 million square meters) of constructed floor space between early 2020 and late 2025. New towers, bunkers and berms consistent with weapons development have cropped up in satellite imagery of these growing sites. In some cases, missile parts can even be seen in the images. edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/w…

"#China over the past three decades has built its own form of #globalization, which resembles the spiked, one-way exit at a car rental agency: The system eases the flow of #Chinese products leaving, and makes it painful for anything going in, with policy and politics that protect its huge market from strong foreign competition." nytimes.com/2025/11/08/world…

#CCP #China’s #PLAN commissions #CV18 #Fujian at #Yulin. She attends! scmp.com/news/china/military…

‼️ Blatant transnational repression ‼️ 🇨🇳 authorities harassed several dozen Chinese film directors and producers, as well as their families in China, causing them to pull films from the inaugural IndieChina Film Festival in New York City. On Nov 6, 2025, the festival’s organizer, Zhu Rikun (朱日坤), announced that the film festival, scheduled for Nov 8-15, had been “suspended”. “The Chinese government reached around the globe to shut down a film festival in New York City. This latest act of transnational repression demonstrates the Chinese government’s aim to control what the world sees and learns about China.” Chiang Seeta, a Chinese artist and activist, reported that nearly all participating directors in China faced intimidation. Even directors abroad, including those who are not 🇨🇳 nationals, reported that their relatives and friends in China were receiving threatening calls from police. On Nov 1, the organizers issued an announcement on social media saying they had received messages from some film directors and producers and their families about Chinese government harassment: “We are deeply concerned about the situation. … [I]f you are under pressure not to attend the festival … we fully understand and respect it.” By Nov 4, more than two-thirds of participating films had cancelled their screenings. After the festival was suspended, Zhu issued a statement saying that the decision was not out of fear, but rather to “stop harassment of … directors, guests, former staff, and volunteers associated with the festival, including my friends and family.” Independent film festivals in China have faced intensifying crackdowns over the past decade. 🇨🇳 authorities have shut down all three major independent film festivals in China: Yunfest, founded in 2003; the China Independent Film Festival, founded in 2003; and Beijing Independent Film Festival, founded in 2006. When the authorities shut down the last screening of the Beijing Independent Film Festival in 2014, they cut off electricity from the venue, confiscated documents from the organizer’s office, and forced the organizers to sign a paper promising not to hold the festival. Many festival organizers have tried without success to adapt, for instance by changing their format to screenings at multiple venues. The 14th China Independent Film Festival was shuttered in 2018, the last time such a festival took place in China. The Xi Jinping government’s tightening of ideological controls has resulted in the prosecution and imprisonment of a number of filmmakers and has caused many others to go into exile. In 2014, a court sentenced Shen Yongping, a prominent filmmaker whose documentary about the constitution is critical of the government, to one year in prison for alleged “illegal business activity.” A court in Jan 2025 sentenced Chen Pinlin, known as Plato, to three-and-a-half years in prison for allegedly “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” after he made a documentary about the “white paper protests” during Covid-19 lockdowns. In April, the authorities confiscatedequipment and materials from Guo Zhenming, a Chinese artist, for filming Uyghur folk music in Xinjiang, where Uyghurs and other Muslims have experienced severe repression, and fined him 75,000 yuan (~US$10,550) for not providing his screenplay synopsis to relevant departments. In Hong Kong, the authorities have banned 13 films from being shown on “national security” grounds. The 🇨🇳 government’s transnational repression of the arts has not been limited to film. Chinese officials interfered with an exhibition in Bangkok and censored artwork by Uyghur, Tibetan, and Hongkonger artists in August. hrw.org/news/2025/11/07/chin… theguardian.com/world/2025/n…

日本首相高市早苗今天在眾議院預算委員會上的答辯，標誌著日本安全政策的一個歷史性轉折。她明確指出，若台灣遭受武力攻擊，並出現以戰艦進行海上封鎖等行動，日本政府可能將此視為「存亡危機事態」，自衛隊可以據此行使集體自衛權。她強調，台灣局勢已進入極為嚴峻的階段，政府必須以最壞的情況為前提做好準備。這番話的意義在於，日本首度由現任首相正式承認，若台海爆發戰爭，自衛隊可能介入。 根據日本現行安全法制，只要與日本密切相關的國家遭到攻擊，而此舉被認定為威脅日本存亡，則即使日本本身未被攻擊，也可行使集體自衛權。換言之，若中國對台發動軍事行動，日本政府可能認定這是「日本的事」，進而採取實際行動。這樣的表態，延續了安倍晉三前首相在卸任之後發表的「台灣有事就是日本有事」的理念，而且進一步賦予了政策實質。 長期以來，日本被稱為「單肺國家」——由於和平憲法的束縛，只能依靠經濟和外交手段維持國際地位，無法以軍事力量支撐國策。然而，如今的日本正逐漸擺脫這種被動狀態。高市的發言，不只是安全政策上的宣示，更象徵日本國家意識的復甦。二戰敗戰八十年後，日本正準備重新以「正常國家」的姿態，回到國際政治舞台的中央。 對台灣而言，這是利多。若中國考慮動武，不僅要顧忌美國的反應，也必須防範日本的介入。這將大幅提高北京的攻台成本，使其武力冒險的可能性下降。 高市早苗的態度象徵著一個新的日本正在形成。面對台海的風雲詭譎，她以務實的危機意識推動防衛政策的轉變。日本正在對自身角色重新定位——從被動的和平主義者，轉向積極守護自由與安全的行動者。

Friends, there’s a new and fantastic newsletter for those interested in PRC maritime affairs! Check it out! China Maritime Observer - Oct 2025 chinamaritimeobserver.beehii…

"Much future history may hinge on Taiwan’s fate. In the most calamitous scenarios, how Taiwan falls is less important than undeniable fact of its fall. Taiwan’s strategic significance and far-ranging damage from Chinese coercive annexation would be a devastating US loss . . ."

Indeed. PRC/PLA ‘threat deflation’ was the order of the day for a few decades in too much of US military, think tank world, academia, Wall Street, industry, Capitol Hill, and elsewhere. Unfortunately, it still exists.

Annexation of Taiwan The Great Silicon Collapse chinainarms.substack.com/p/a… #TSMC #SiliconValley #Taiwanmilitary #Chinamilitary #Taiwan

I remember when the US dismissed China’s first carrier as purely an ego flex - the lag in recognizing China’s global ambitions for power projection still persists. cnn.com/2025/11/07/china/chi…

China has commissioned its first indigenously designed aircraft carrier after months of sea trials, and named it the Fujian, after the province facing Taiwan across a narrow strait, according to state media reports reut.rs/43i20u4

The Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier, has officially entered service on Wednesday, with President Xi Jinping overseeing the commissioning ceremony in Hainan.

The Chinese Navy (PLAN) on November 5 officially commissioned the third aircraft carrier, Fujian (18) into active service 🇨🇳 By @AlexLuck9 navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

China’s latest and most capableaircraft carrier has officially entered service, a significant step forward for Beijing as it seeks to catch up with the United States on naval supremacy. edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/c…

The Chinese Navy (PLAN) has commissioned aircraft carrier Fujian on November 5 in Sanya. I provide an overview on the event and a preliminary assessment on how the development fits into wider Chinese carrier aviation, for @navalnewscom. navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

China's latest aircraft carrier enters fleet as naval competition with the US heats up. cnn.it/3JGFEf8