United go to the City Ground in a much better place than a month ago, but it’s still a proper trap game.
Context / Form
•United: three straight league wins (Sunderland, Liverpool, Brighton), goals flowing again – 14 since end of August, only Arsenal better in that stretch. Amorim even up for manager of the month.
•Forest: chaos season – Nuno → Postecoglou (40 days) → now Sean Dyche. He beat Porto in Europe on debut but the league is the real problem: 6 defeats in last 7 PL games, 4 in a row without scoring, sitting 18th.
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New-manager bounce (Forest)
Dyche’s bounce won’t look like the usual “play expansive, crowd onside” version. It’ll be: lower block, narrow midfield, stop crosses, make it horrible for United, live off set-plays and Forest’s athletic wide players. He inherits a side that has actually beaten United twice last season, so he can sell the dressing room a simple message: “This lot don’t like it here.”
Likely shape: 4-4-1-1 / 4-5-1
•Sels; Williams – Murillo – Milenković – Savona
•Ndoye/Hudson-Odoi tucking in, Douglas Luiz + Anderson to screen
•Gibbs-White free to jump on transitions
•Igor Jesus up top to run channels
That’s basically “protect the middle, force United wide, win second balls.”
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How United set up
Amorim has gone pretty close to his Sporting template: back three + aggressive wing-backs + front three.
Probable: Lammens; de Ligt – Maguire – Shaw; Amad – Casemiro – Fernandes – Dalot; Mbeumo – Cunha – Šeško. That gives:
1.Wide overloads (Amad/Dalot high),
2.Fernandes between the lines to break a block,
3.Front three all mobile – Mbeumo running in behind, Cunha link, Šeško for depth.
Key detail: Forest under Dyche will happily let United’s outer CBs have it, so United’s tempo + rotations around Bruno are everything. If United are slow, it turns into 90 minutes of crossing onto Murillo/Milenković heads.
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Game hinges on…
1.First goal: Forest have scored 5 in 9 and blanked in four straight in the league; if they go 0-1, it’s a long afternoon.
2.United’s wing-backs vs Forest wide mids: if Amad/Dalot pin them back, Forest can’t counter; if Ndoye/Hudson-Odoi break the press once or twice, United’s back three gets exposed on the turn.
3.Set-plays: Dyche will load them – Murillo, Milenković, even Yates if he comes on. United have Maguire/Shaw but rest defense can be messy.
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If United win
•They could jump from 6th into the top-four mix (even up to 2nd if other results go their way) – which completely changes the tone around Amorim after the Brentford low point.
•It proves the Liverpool/Brighton wins weren’t just Old Trafford energy – it’s an away win at a ground they’ve actually struggled at.
•It keeps the front three hot: Mbeumo + Cunha scoring again makes this look like a real Amorim side, not just a patched-up United.
If Forest get something
•Dyche sells “we’ve stopped the bleeding” to the owner after a crazy October.
•It pulls them closer to Fulham in 17th and gives him leverage to drop one or two of the more “expensive but not Dyche” attackers.
•For United it re-opens the “can they break a low block away from home?” debate and knocks Amorim off the October wave.
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