31 million Americans are on GLP-1 drugs. That's 12% of all adults.
Grocery spending is down 8%. Alcohol down 33%. Snack sales down 11%.
This isn't a health trend.
It's what happens when you rewire dopamine-seeking behavior at population scale.
Every business model optimized for impulse is now playing a different game.
GLP-1s target the brain's reward pathway. The same system that makes you:
- Buy one more thing on Amazon
- Binge the next episode
- Scroll for another hour
Suppress the pathway = suppress ALL reward-seeking behavior.
Users don't want to eat less. They want to want less.
The $10-15B that left groceries/alcohol didn't disappear. It moved.
From quantity to quality. From impulse to intentional. From stuff to experiences.
The fixed costs of serving impulsive consumers vs intentional ones are the same.
But trust density beats reach when nobody impulse buys anymore.
Restaurants charging the same for smaller portions lose customers. Lowering prices to match = lower revenue per table.
Fashion brands can't just offer smaller sizes. Bodies are transitioning for 6+ months. Nobody wants a new wardrobe every 8 weeks.
Snack companies can't reformulate. The customer literally doesn't crave anymore.
Distribution is still there, but demand is disappearing.
When pharma removes a biological constraint at scale, markets restructure.
- Birth control (1960s) → women entered workforce → restructured labor markets
- Statins (1990s) → people ate differently → food industry changed
- GLP-1s (2020s) → dopamine rewiring → consumption changes
Every mature market gets unbundled when the job-to-be-done changes.
The companies that win won't be "diet brands."
They'll be native to a world where 20%+ of consumers have a fundamentally different relationship with consumption.
Specificity became valuable because distribution is free, but trust is scarce.
Oct 3, 2025 · 12:26 PM UTC
