The price of ground beef has gone up by 62% since 2019, while the price of milk has gone up by 37% over the same period.
Milk is a good benchmark because that gives you an idea of how much of the price increase is due to monetary inflation + increased cost of inputs in cattle farming.
So a significant amount of the beef price increase is clearly due to other factors. A major driver has been multi-year droughts over this period, which led ranchers to sell off more of their cows than normal because of reduced grazing land and high feed and hay costs.
In 2022, the US cattle herd shrank to its smallest size since the 1950s. The Covid era processing plant shutdowns also injected disruption that has yet to be fully unwound. And the war in Ukraine has driven up prices in grain, fertilizer, and energy.
The average cattle farmer is in their late 50s. With the current high price, many are choosing to get out while they can sell high. This leads to the cattle herd getting even smaller, producing fewer calves, further pressuring prices upwards as there is not enough calves to both grow the herd and satisfy current beef demand.
Exports have also risen, with countries like China and Japan buying more U.S. beef, further reducing domestic availability
Another major problem is that 4 companies control 85% of the beef processing market. There are too few USDA licensed slaughterhouses with available capacity for the smaller ranchers.
But even if we fix the meat processing problem, the fundamental issue of the national herd size still remains to be addressed. It makes sense to import calves with suitable genetics, which Argentina and Paraguay have. The problem with importing calves is that we need to not import the New World Screwworm with them, which would further devastate the U.S. cattle herd.
The smart longterm solution is to go in heavily on restoring American Bison as our main keystone meat species.
Bison are more efficient foragers in arid landscapes, wandering farther from water sources and grazing on a wider variety of native grasses, even in dry or rugged terrain. Cattle, by contrast, tend to congregate near water and shade, leading to overgrazing in those areas and poorer adaptation to water scarcity.
Bison tolerate heat and dry conditions more effectively than cattle, which often require supplemental feed or water in similar scenarios. They also have better endurance in blizzards, and are much more effective at deterring predators.
Their meat is superior to beef in flavor—I exclusively go for bison ribeye over angus—and in nutritional profile, from fat composition to B vitamin and mineral content.