The CapEx supercycle is fundamentally about building the future’s engines of value, not keeping day traders happy. While the MSM and day-traders obsess over bubble calls and day-to-day swings, they miss the tectonic shift: historic incentives and irreversible investment into digital and energy infrastructure are redefining the foundations of wealth. The real risk now is not in being too early, but in being too late, those fixated on timing corrections or trading headlines risk missing the compounding impact of policy, platform growth, and network effects now reshaping the global economy.

For the record. SOFR and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) are not perfectly correlated, despite what many pedantic commentators claim. Their movements are related, but SOFR is set directly by real transaction activity and liquidity in the repo market, whereas the FFR is a policy target managed by the Federal Reserve. This distinction means SOFR can and does diverge from the FFR due to a variety of technical and market-driven factors, such as shifts in Treasury cash flows, collateral supply, and short-term liquidity changes. Recent dramatic declines in SOFR, for example, reflect genuine injections of liquidity into the banking system—especially as Treasury outflows draw down the TGA from extreme levels—rather than simply mirroring the Fed’s policy rate. The notion that SOFR simply follows the FFR is an oversimplification that overlooks how market structure and liquidity dynamics actually shape short-term rates. Pedantic takes insisting on near-100% correlation ignore the empirical volatility and real-world divergence between these rates, and miss the importance of SOFR’s role as a live, market-driven signal of actual funding conditions.

For the record. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), passed in 1977, has been used by every U.S. president since its enactment to impose financial restrictions and sanctions against foreign threats, despite not explicitly mentioning “tariffs” or “sanctions.” It is up to the president to determine what constitutes a national security threat and to declare emergencies in response to “unusual and extraordinary threats” from abroad. Under IEEPA, this executive discretion has enabled broad applications in economic statecraft. Congress maintains ultimate oversight. If Congress does not agree with the president’s actions, such as the imposition of tariffs, it possesses explicit authority to vote to reverse or terminate those emergency powers or actions by joint resolution. Critically, this case about tariffs under IEEPA should not be decided by the Supreme Court IMO. The statutory design places ongoing responsibility with Congress, not the judiciary. Policy choices and disputes over presidential use of emergency powers are properly resolved by Congress using its legislative tools rather than through judicial intervention. If Congress objects to the president’s actions under IEEPA, it is empowered and obligated to act, preserving the separation of powers.

Shot across the bow by the President

SOFR dropping like a stone. A dramatic decline in SOFR means that borrowing money overnight in US markets just got cheaper, which signals easier or more accommodative monetary conditions for banks and businesses.

My 2 cents on PM Carney’s budget. It’s not the Big Bang, but it’s a coherent, prudent starting point that recognizes the private sector must lead. Behind its careful rhetoric lies a $280 billion wager to unlock over $1 trillion in private capital for AI, housing, and defence. This is not fiscal tinkering; it’s the architecture of a national industrial strategy. Canada now has the beginnings of an industrial policy focused on productivity growth, one that’s been missing for decades. Is it perfect no, but it’s starting point. While pundits obsess over pipelines, they miss the bigger picture. Yes, pipelines matter, but they’re only one part of a broader industrial vision to position Canada for the AI‑driven economy. Carney is right: pipelines may be boring, but productivity isn’t, and this budget aims squarely at reigniting it. Regulatory reform, competitive tax tools, and targeted public spending are finally being deployed with purpose. And yet, pundits still complain, blind to the fact that Ottawa has quietly redrawn the economic playbook.

For the record. The market doesn’t need a reason to correct, it just does. From April’s apocalypse calls to the S&P 500 ripping past 6900, Wall Street botched it again, dumping stocks at the bottom while lecturing everyone about risk. Now the market’s trying to justify a perfectly normal correction, and the pundits are busy inventing reasons to sound smart after the fact. The truth is simple: this was a healthy reset, not the start of a collapse. The “AI bubble equals GFC” crowd is chasing ghosts. The shakeout’s over. Once Washington flips the switch back on, liquidity will roar in. Ignore the noise, the pain trade is still due north. We rally into the spring of 2026.

Every notice that Wall St never suggests that China is in a bubble. Wall Street routinely overlooks China’s massive coal power buildout, as the country’s drive for cheap electricity directly fuels its competitiveness in the global AI arms race. Wall Street continues to give China a free pass again.

Bears want you to believe $NVDA is expensive and AI is a bubble. Ignore the noise. Nvidia CEO Huang sees strong demand for Blackwell chips reuters.com/world/china/nvid…

Again Sec Bessent gets it. It’s about the processing of Rare Earths.

Everyone needs to just calm down and listen to what Prime Minister Carney is saying. In a candid interview, Prime Minister Carney didn’t hold back. “Pipelines are boring,” he said, before laying out a stark challenge: Canada must stop being an exporter of unrefined resources and start using its vast energy and mineral wealth to power something bigger. In Carney’s view, the real opportunity isn’t just in pipelines, it’s in turning cheap, clean energy and critical minerals into the foundation for global leadership in artificial intelligence. Canada, he argued, needs to think beyond extraction and start building the future. Yes pipelines are boring, Canada needs to become a AI superpower.

When Liquidity drys up the Bull Run ends. It’s not about valuation, ignore the noise. Government Opens and TGA draws begin. Dec 1 QT ends. More rate cuts. President Williams out with some interesting comments today. Fed to expand security holdings … was the suggestion..

Canada. Unemployment in Alberta 7.8% Unemployment in Ontario 7.6% BOC needs to cut !

Simple rule. Don’t bet against Elon. $TSLA

The AI Bubble. Next time you see a pundit speak as if central bankers are omnipotent, calling AI a bubble, or that the natural rate of interest is fixed. Remember this: some central banks, like the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, don’t even hold gold. The Bank of England literally sold at the Gordon Brown bottom. Why does anyone think institutions that couldn’t forecast inflation can now, given massive structural stocks, forecast the neutral rate of interest r* or the biggest structural change in modern history intrinsic value.

Why has this nuclear technology not been commercialized? 👇

The former Governor of the BOC on Canada “walking and crewing gun at the same time” with respect to becoming an energy super power. Pathways is central to his thesis👇