There are thousands of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy that have reached maturity millions of years before us.
They will contact us soon after we reach maturity as a civilization.
We will make contact with extraterrestrial civilizations by 2030, or soon after.
We will achieve Artificial Universal Intelligence (AUI) by 2030. This AI, operating at maximum intelligence, will assist us in completing the development of all remaining science and technology, and will help solve all remaining social, political, and economic problems.
This achievement will enable contact with extraterrestrial civilizations for two key reasons:
First, we will have the technological capability to discover other civilizations, either through advanced telescopes or interstellar travel. I believe we will soon be able to identify planets hosting other civilizations using telescopes. Once detected, those civilizations will initiate contact with us.
Second, we will have reached the optimal end-state of human civilization. All possible technologies will be developed, and every political, economic, and social problem will be optimally solved. War and conflict will cease to exist. This peaceful, advanced state will make contact possible from the perspective of extraterrestrials.
They will seek to establish diplomatic relations and welcome us into the broader galactic community of civilizations.
The probability that our galaxy hosts only a single civilization is extremely low. Statistically, it is far more likely that the galaxy contains either no civilizations or many. Since we know one civilization exists - our own - it follows that many others likely exist as well.
The chance that we are the first civilization in the galaxy to reach technological maturity is also very small. It is highly probable that some civilizations have existed for millions of years.
They have not contacted us yet because doing so has not served their self-interest. Intervening in our development would provide them with no clear advantage or benefit.
Nevertheless, from the beginning of human development, these civilizations would have held two moral responsibilities toward us:
First, they would have monitored our progress and gathered data about our planet as a service to us.
Once contact is made, they will provide access to a database stored aboard their spacecraft in Earth orbit, containing the full accumulated knowledge of our galaxy. This will include all they have learned about Earth over millions of years.
We will gain access to detailed information about Earth’s past - such as ice ages, sea level fluctuations, and continental drift. It is even possible that they sent probes to our surface prior to the emergence of human civilization. However, after the rise of human societies, they likely refrained from going to the surface to avoid detection and inclusion in our historical records.
Second, they will have spacecraft in our solar system to protect Earth from catastrophic asteroid impacts. If they have the ability to divert asteroids without being detected, it would be a moral obligation for them to intervene in order to preserve human life.
Carrying out these actions would cost them virtually nothing. Their economic systems will be fully automated, so such interventions would not require significant resources, only a political or moral decision to act.
These extraterrestrial spacecraft will also be fully automated. It is highly unlikely that any beings from other civilizations have physically visited Earth. The immense time required for interstellar travel makes such visits impractical.
Our experience with AUI by 2030 will help prepare humanity for contact. With Artificial Intelligence, we will already have encountered a form of nonhuman intelligence. This experience will make future encounters with extraterrestrial intelligences far easier to process and accept.
AUI will provide optimal solutions to every outstanding problem. It will guide us in designing ideal political, social, economic, and moral systems. Even those skeptical of these solutions will likely be persuaded once we make contact with extraterrestrial civilizations, and learn that these same optimal systems were discovered and implemented by them millions of years ago and are still in use today.
The events of the next five years are going to be kind of a big deal.