Wo Demut weicht, wächst Hochmut und die Klarheit der Wahrheit trübt sich zur Täuschung, weil der Getäuschte sich für untäuschbar hält.

If you had any doubts still, yes: the Chinese reopening is real. Not sure markets have fully incorporated its implications for global growth & inflation, and therefore for several asset classes.

U.S. high-yield bond spreads are the tightest since May 2022.

Underweight US Long Rest of World Is a massive consensus view already

#copper prices tend to lead the CPI by around 2-3 months

Good Morning from #Germany, where supermarket prices keep rising. German Food CPI jumped 21% YoY in Nov, the highest food price #inflation since the start of the statistic & way higher than in other Eurozone countries. In #Italy, food inflation is just 14% & in #Spain 16%.

Is recession canceled? - Shipping costs are now down to pre-pandemic levels!

German yield curve inverted. 2-10 year. Graph Bloomberg

Most telegraphed recession of all time. Found myself thinking this a lot in recent months especially when calls for “ISM 37 this autumn” became deafening on Fintwit back in May-July. Maybe short/shallow just to fuk with econ doomers. Still pondering this. H/t @EdwardDiGi

Europe becoming open-air museum in one eye opening chart 👇 (Natixis)

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says he expects the S&P 500 to fall to 3000-3300 in Q1 of next year 👀

Goldman is calling time on the US dollar’s strength against Asian currencies, saying it will wane in the next three-to-six months when greater clarity emerges over the Fed’s policy rates trib.al/dwbQ5aP

10. "Fed liquidity-implied fair value" Current SPX: 3965 Current FV: 3600 FV by YE: 3400 (i.e. stocks still overvalued on this metric) h/t @steve_donze $SPX $SPY $MACRO $FED