I hate to burst everyone's bubble, but it's not 213-206.
-Democrats are going to flip Issa's seat in SoCal.
-Marie Perez is in more danger of a primary from the Left than she is losing her seat in Washington.
-Democrats are favored to hold NM-2 and it's pretty ridiculous for Cook to list this as a tossup.
-Democrats are also favored to hold OH-1.
-Utah is probably going to have to create a Dem district in Salt Lake City.
-Democrats can still gerrymander in Maryland and Illinois, where they can peel off at least two if not three additional seats.
The current map is, at best, 210-2013 for the GOP. More likely, it's 213-210 in the other direction.
Yes, the GOP can still redistrict in Florida, and they may be able to hold off a push for a ballot referendum in Missouri, but they are definitely underdogs going into the midterms.
Long term, the redistricting wars favor them. But not until/unless the VRA is struck down by the Supreme Court.
New Cook Political Report 2026 House Ratings (After Jared Golden’s Retirement)
🔴 Republicans: 213 (+1)
🔵 Democrats: 206
🟡 Tossup: 16 (-1)
ME-2 Cook Political Report Rating Change:
🟡 Toss-up -> 🔴 Likely Republican