No War Without Interest: Lessons for Nigeria
By Chief Ayodele Afolabi
History across Africa teaches a sobering lesson: there is no war without interest. Conflicts rarely erupt purely from ideology or chance; they are fueled by the desire to control resources, consolidate power, or gain strategic advantage. Libya, for example, has been mired in civil strife since 2011, with militias and rival governments fighting over oil fields, ports, and revenue streams. Foreign powers, pursuing their own geopolitical and economic interests, have further prolonged the instability. The result is a fractured society, collapsed infrastructure, displaced populations, and an economy crippled by chaos.
Similarly, in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, armed groups vie for control of rich mineral deposits, while weak governance allows them to profit from insecurity. Sudan and South Sudan have seen cycles of violence driven by elite competition for state revenues and political survival. In the Sahel, insurgencies thrive where governments cannot secure borders or maintain law and order, and external interventions often inflame local tensions. Across these examples, war becomes a tool for those who gain materially or politically, while ordinary citizens bear the cost.
Nigeria, in contrast, is uniquely positioned to avoid the spiral of conflict that has plagued some of its neighbors. Blessed with abundant natural resources, human capital, and a functioning, if imperfect, democratic system, Nigeria’s strength lies in unity and governance, not in the destruction of its own foundations. War or external intervention would only replicate the mistakes seen in Libya or the DRC: disruption of livelihoods, destruction of infrastructure, weakened institutions, and exploitation by external actors pursuing their own interests.
What Nigeria needs instead is strategic foresight, dialogue, and inclusive governance. Addressing local grievances, strengthening institutions, and ensuring equitable distribution of resources reduce the likelihood that internal tensions escalate into conflict. By managing its diversity, investing in human capital, and prioritizing diplomacy over force, Nigeria can resolve disputes peacefully and maintain sovereignty over its affairs.
In conclusion, the African experience underscores that wars are rarely about morality or justice they are about interests. Nigeria does not need war or foreign intervention; what it requires is a commitment to internal cohesion, good governance, and a long-term vision that safeguards both peace and prosperity. The lesson is clear: nations that prioritize unity, justice, and the well-being of their citizens will thrive, while those that fall prey to the lure of external or internal interests may crumble.
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