⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ The #Chancellor should use the forthcoming Autumn #Budget to create a bigger fiscal buffer and set #debt on a clearly declining path 📉 Our latest quarterly UK Economic Outlook is published - Access it here 👇 hubs.la/Q03RNhrX0

#WeekendReading 🔖 Our latest quarterly UK Economic Outlook suggesting the #Chancellor should use the forthcoming Autumn #Budget to create a bigger fiscal buffer and set #debt on a clearly declining path📉 Free to access and in HTML for the first time hubs.la/Q03Sdg0q0

#WeekendReading 🔖 What's the current state of the UK economy? What is the outlook for 2026?⚡️ In our latest #MondayInterview, our @EconSteveM outlines what the main issues are at the moment and what to expect from the forthcoming #AutumnBudget ⬇️⬇️⬇️ hubs.la/Q03Sd3T40

The #DirectorView is out now📈 In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman examines what the #Chancellor should say in the new MPC remit - and poses 5⃣ critical questions for the Chancellor to consider when writing this year’s letter hubs.la/Q03S8Qjp0

Now is the time for the Q&A session - Don't forget from today you can access the full document here - free access 🔓 - and for the first time in HTML as well - Hope you like the change... any feedback just let us know ! 13/13 ENDS @RoyalEconSoc niesr.ac.uk/reports/economic…

Our @BenEcon33 concludes his presentation emphasizing why it is now the moment to start bringing debt down: "The sun might not be shining but is better to fix the roof in light drizzle than during a thunderstorm!" ⚡️⛈️ 12/n

So the main challenge goes beyond the fiscal rules and lies in #debt sustainability The UK needs to run primary surpluses - something hasn't done in the last 25 years! - to start getting debt down 11/n

So how much headroom is needed to run 'sustainable public finances'? We think a buffer of 1-2% of #GDP is needed - much more than what #Chancellors have left themselves in the last 6 fiscal events 10/n

Tuning to #FiscalPolicy, it is now clear that the Government is running a deficit against their fiscal rules We think it is approx. £38bn, with the second chart here explaining the difference with the latest @OBR_UK projections - Major factor is our view on trend growth that make the deficit number substantially bigger 9/n

We think #inflation has peaked and will return to 2% target next year, but not before the second half of the year Given this, we think the Bank of England will cut rates but not before February 2026 "There is no much scope for further cut rates for monetary policy to be effective at the moment" 8/n

#GDP growth revised slightly upwards, but will be falling back next year to what we think is UK trend growth at the moment 7/n

Now over to @BenEcon33 who will be outlining our view of the UK economy and what should happen at the forthcoming #Budget Here are the main messages 👇 6/n

Other risks lie in the US stock market where some correction might be happening in the near future 5/n

#Tariffs are still a major source of uncertainty and risk 4/n

Tariffs are gradually transmitting to US consumers, though their impact to overall trade might be overstated, as shown by this chart 3/n

Ahmet outlines the main themes - 🌎📈 Global growth is holding relatively well - with advanced economies to grow by 1.7% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 Emerging economies are resilient too with forecast growth rates of 4.2% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026 2/n

And we are live ⚡️ - With our Director David Aikman introducing @KayaAhmetIhsan who will be going through the Global Economy💻 Follow the thread here and don't forget you can access our outlook in full here - and for the first time in HTML too!! 👇👇🧵 1/n niesr.ac.uk/reports/economic…

🚨LAST CALL 🚨 Less than 2⃣4⃣ hours to our Economic Forum 💻 Join us online at 11am tomorrow to hear all the latest research from us on the UK economy, the upcoming #Budget and the latest #InterestRates decision 📈 Sign up here 👇 hubs.la/Q03R-Bf20

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #BankOfEngland's MPC decision on #InterestRates is out now⚡️ #UKeconomy #MonetaryPolicy #Budget @RoyalEconSoc