People are losing their minds over this 50 year mortgage (which you can choose NOT to use...) so let's do some math. Home price: $400K Down payment: 20% Interest: 7% Annual home appreciation: 4% 30 year mortgage: Total interest: $446K End home value: ~$1.3M Net (less purchase price + total interest): $450K 50 year mortgage: Total interest: $835K End home value: ~$2.8M Net (less purchase price + total interest): $1.61M This program is wonderful. While it doesn't solve the affordability issue as a whole, it lowers the barrier to entry and gives homeowners options.
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Replying to @kianejatian
Priced in gold, judging from gold price history, or judging by the price histories for education, health care, or houses themselves, the $2.8 million after 50 years will be worth only about the same as the original $400K. Which means you will have a net loss in real terms. What's more, 7%/year doesn't cover property taxes or maintenence, which will add 2%-5%/year. So it's even more of a net loss. You will probably be able to buy more widgets and AI tokens with the money tho.

Nov 10, 2025 · 1:02 AM UTC

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Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
One thing to consider though, is that if you aren't paying a mortgage you're probably paying something similar in rent anyway. If you don't take a $500/month mortgage, it doesn't mean you have $500/month free to invest.
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For primary residence, true.
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Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
Noticed this, from my perspective the CHF chart shows the same thing you’re saying in gold terms. USD has lost ~80% of its value vs the Swiss franc over the last 50 years. That ‘$2.8M future home value’ is mostly the denominator melting. Long-term USD debasement acts as a hidden tax on homeowners via the federal debt load — but most people only look at nominal USD and miss the real loss in purchasing power.
Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
Reserves for replacement and don’t forget after 20 years you will have to upgrade everything otherwise in 30 the only value will be in the land. You’ll own what is known as a teardown. Market acceptance of this functionally, physically and potentially economic may obsolete structure could be nothing and that’s not even considering what of the area changes. This is called external or economic obsolescence. You could own something worth absolutely less than zero. Just ask Detroit.
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Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
Exactly. I believe Trump will massively devalue USD He could do it overnight by decree (like 1933 and 1971), or with a few years of high inflation, or a mix of both This could redistribute housing that will be paid back in huge dollar numbers but peanuts in real terms
Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
No investors in the right mind would buy a 50-year bond, the time range is too long. Therefore, most of these bonds will likely be bought by the government (aka money printing aka paid by the public). Basically, it is money printing to give to new home owners (with extra steps).
Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
The best part is paying capital gains tax on something that didn't gain any real value.
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Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
You're being nice on the rate of inflation destroying purchasing power. We've been seeing well over 8% for 8+ years now. I'm thinking 30 years or less to hit that $400K in todays purchasing power comparison.
Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
I think the biggest thing people forget here is you don't own that house until it's paid off. 50 years is a long time to pay something off and a lot can happen in that time. Also needs to be said you will be paying off mostly interest for the first 30 or so years not capital
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Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
Hahahahahahahahahhaha
Replying to @NickSzabo4 @kianejatian
@grok explique pra mim esse debate
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