Asia Colour - 5 Nov 25 1/ $BTC led the global risk-off move overnight, sliding to test the critical $100,000 support level as a firmer dollar and lingering Fed uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment. Four straight days of ~$1.3B in U.S. spot ETF outflows have flipped one of 2025’s strongest tailwinds into a near-term headwind.

2/ The move was compounded by over $1B in long liquidations and dealer hedging around key $100k strikes, intensifying volatility before dip buyers stepped in. For now, $100k remains the psychological line in the sand, any stabilization in ETF flows could swiftly shift sentiment back toward the upside.

3/ Despite the noise, the macro backdrop remains broadly constructive. With the government shutdown delaying official data, investors are leaning on private indicators that continue to show steady growth, from GDP revisions to jobless claims near 218k.

4/ Still, policy uncertainty keeps the dollar firm. The Fed’s October cut was tempered by hawkish dissents, and markets now price roughly 60–65% odds of another move in December. The longer the blackout persists, the likelier the Fed pauses, maintaining tight credit conditions.