Dave Wasserman
 @Redistrict

Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

 Washington, DC
cookpolitical.com/about/staf…
Joined September 2009
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Grace Panetta
 @grace_panetta
Nov 5
the most fun fact (to me) from this election night: Abigail Spanberger born in Red Bank, NJ, will be governor of Virginia and Mikie Sherrill, born in Alexandria, VA, will be governor of New Jersey
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Cook Political Report
 @CookPolitical
Nov 5
A blue wave is building; the only question now is whether it can be sustained for another twelve months. Read our analysis from @amyewalter, @JessicaTaylor, @ercovey & @MattKleinOnline: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…

A Blue Wave Is Building: What We Learned From Election Night 2025 | Cook Political Report

It’s not 2024 anymore. In fact, Tuesday’s elections showed that the current political environment is more akin to the 2018 cycle, when huge Democratic turnout — spurred by an unpopular President...

cookpolitical.com
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Steve Kornacki
 @SteveKornacki
Nov 5
New Jersey municipalities that are 60%+ Hispanic where we currently have results:
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Amy Walter
 @amyewalter
Nov 5
Meanwhile, TX GOPers looking at the results last night should not feel great about basing their hopes for flipping redrawn S. TX CD’s on Trump’s 2024 Latino performance.
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If there's a consolation for Republicans, it's that they're on track to hold all the Trump 5-10 districts in VA (if narrowly in some cases), meaning the bottom didn't entirely drop out.
Dave Wasserman
 @Redistrict
Nov 4
Replying to @Redistrict
Here are the seven GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 5-10 pts. If Dems win any of these tonight, *watch out* (it's tsunami territory): #HD34 Wilt (R) #HD40 McNamara (R) #HD49 Marshall (R) #HD52 Walker (R) #HD74 Cherry (R) #HD83 Wachsmann (R) #HD100 Bloxom (R)
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Update: this has happened. Dems on track to win at least 64 (!) VA House of Delegates seats, w/ two races still outstanding. Massive Dem night.
Dave Wasserman
 @Redistrict
Nov 4
Replying to @Redistrict
If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26.
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I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here. That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
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Here are the seven GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 5-10 pts. If Dems win any of these tonight, *watch out* (it's tsunami territory): #HD34 Wilt (R) #HD40 McNamara (R) #HD49 Marshall (R) #HD52 Walker (R) #HD74 Cherry (R) #HD83 Wachsmann (R) #HD100 Bloxom (R)
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Here are the six GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 0-5 pts in '24 that could indicate a Dem wave: #HD30 Higgins (R) #HD41 Obenshain (R) #HD64 Milde (R) #HD66 Orrock (R) #HD69 Green (R) #HD99 Tata (R) A defeat of Orrock (longest-serving delegate) would be an exclamation point.
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Here are the eight GOP-held VA HoD seats won by Harris in '24 that Dems have a great chance to flip: #HD22 Lovejoy (R) #HD57 Owen (R) #HD71 Batten (R) #HD73 Earley (R) #HD75 Coyner (R) #HD82 Taylor (R) #HD86 Cordoza (R) #HD89 OPEN (R)
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By comparison, today there are three House GOP members in Harris districts, 12 in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts and 14 in districts that voted for Trump by 5-10 pts (though these numbers will change a bit when redistricting dust settles).
Dave Wasserman
 @Redistrict
Nov 4
Replying to @Redistrict
Today, the VA House of Delegates is effectively 51D-49R. But there are eight GOP delegates in districts that voted for Harris in '24, another six in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts, and another seven in districts Trump won by 5-10 pts.
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Big difference between the VA HoD & U.S. House: today, there are 13 House Dems in Trump seats but zero VA HoD Dems in Trump districts. That gives Dems a head start towards the House majority. Still, I'll be watching the extent to which VA Dems break into Trump turf tonight.
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If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26.
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However, if Dems win 60+ House of Delegates seats, it would indicate a Dem enthusiasm/turnout edge consistent w/ Dems having a good chance to flip the U.S. House, despite a possible 4-8 seat GOP net gain from newly gerrymandered maps.
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If Dems win something like 55-59 HoD seats tonight, it would be a sizable gain but would indicate Dems are pretty much only flipping Harris districts. Nationally, there are only three GOP members in Harris districts - not enough to win Dems the House.
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Today, the VA House of Delegates is effectively 51D-49R. But there are eight GOP delegates in districts that voted for Harris in '24, another six in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts, and another seven in districts Trump won by 5-10 pts.
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Nationally, the median House district voted for Trump by 3.1 pts in 2024. Depending on the final outcome of redistricting, Dems will need to hold/flip seats that voted for Trump by 3-5 pts to win control.
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Pro tip: almost all the attention tonight will be on #NJGov, #VAgov and NYC mayor, but for '26 clues I'll be watching what happens in VA's House of Delegates. Here's why...
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ICYMI, here's @CookPolitical's guide for what to watch tonight in CA, NJ and VA: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…

What To Watch on Election Night 2025 | Cook Political Report

The off-year elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are a political level-set. For the last year, most of our assumptions about the relative strength of the two parties' voter coalitions...

cookpolitical.com
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Steve Kornacki
 @SteveKornacki
Nov 4
NBC News Now is the place to be tonight! Tune in and please help spread the word!
Kristen Welker
 @kwelkernbc
Nov 4
TUNE IN: Tonight starting at 7pm ET, I'll be anchoring election coverage on NBC News NOW alongside @SteveKornacki, @LlamasNBC and @HallieJackson! WATCH HERE: nbcnews.com/Watch
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