A Different Angle
Laying out a perspective you probably won't hear much today. When I step back from the noise, a pattern emerges from the federal government's recent actions. There seems to be a "Persuasion" campaign underway to legitimize dropping the USA partnership!
This isn't about a single event; it's about what appears to be a broader strategic shift in who Canada chooses to do business with. Consider two data points from the last few days.
First, Anita Anand publicly states we need to expand our partnership with China. Let that one sink in for a moment. China.
Second, we have Mark Carney's pre-budget announcement. Everyone is clutching their pearls over the "sacrifices" talk, but the real headline was buried. Before anyone was even talking about the whole Ronald Reagan and Doug Ford video nonsense, Carney declared that our relationship with the United States "will never be the same."
Now, the Doug Ford video was produced on October 14th, but the U.S. President, famously not a man who enjoys being made a fool of, only saw it last night. So, from my skeptical armchair, when you line up Anand's post, Carney's comments, and Ford's preemptively timed video, a picture forms for me. It seems the Liberal government, with an assist from Ontario's Premier, is actively shopping for a new economic partner. And their first choice, apparently, is the People's Republic of China.
This presents a small optics problem, of course to Canadians however. Most people see China not just as a communist dictatorship, but as the primary strategic and economic rival to the United States, our largest and longest trading ally. We also have a long, documented history of Chinese influence within the Liberal Party, through endorsements and lobbying.
So, the obvious question is: why side with China now? Putting the tinfoil hats aside for a moment and just looking at the strategy, it seems the Prime Minister has assessed that the current U.S. President is as flexible as a brick wall on tariffs. That's the core to this whole thing...Flexibility. Why is the Liberal Party reaching for more flexibility now when roughly 74% of our trade is and has been with the U.S.A for the last 35 years?
I believe the real plan, whether it's brilliant or profoundly stupid, appears to be about manufacturing a legitimate excuse to pivot directly to China exclusively. The only hurdle is public perception though. The whole spectacle reeks of a public relations campaign designed to make that pivot palatable to the Canadian public.
To pull this off, you'd need the U.S. President, a man not known for a calm and measured response, to do something aggressive and punitive. What better way to provoke him than to use a figure he respects to mock his core policies and make him look like a fool to his own people?
Now, while I believe the Premier of Ontario is hardly a master strategist, I don't think this particular clumsiness is an accident. This looks like a concerted effort to persuade Canadians that China is a more viable partner than the USA.
The punchline here is the sheer lack of subtlety. Instead of quietly diversifying trade while maintaining our crucial American relationship, our governments seem to think it's in our best interest to publicly torch that relationship. This is all to justify jumping into bed with an authoritarian state we have every reason to be wary of, vis-a vis Justin Trudeau and his alliance with China. This, naturally, leads to a few other questions:
• How deep is China's involvement in these recent decisions?
• To what extent are our domestic policies being dictated, directly or indirectly, through the Prime Minister's Office or a pliable Premier?
A truly uncomfortable question follows:
Have we fundamentally become a proxy for China to wage economic war on the United States?
Because the actions of the last 72 hours don't appear like the moves of a sovereign nation acting with agency. It appears like manipulation, carefully packaged to look like it's for our own good. And who wins in this scenario? It's certainly not Canada. Our trade relationship with China is notoriously one-sided, especially when compared to the one with our closest ally to the south.
To sum it up: while I disagree with Doug Ford's stunt and the deliberate provocation of an ally, the central question remains.
Why are we diverting everything to China at the direct expense of our relationship with the United States?
My read is that this entire drama is a staged performance for the Canadian public. Its goal is to convince us that we need to replace the United States with China as our primary trading partner. It's a tough sell, to say the least, given the last decade has provided us with overwhelming evidence of Chinese meddling in our elections, police stations, and pretty much every other facet of our society. It looks less like diplomacy and more like a plundering. Something tells me China's fingerprints are all over this, and that our government isn't acting with independence, but is being manipulated by a far worse actor.... One we became all too familiar with during the last administration.
This is just my take. What do you think? Is there any merit to my observation?