Chief Investment Strategist, Head of Investment Solutions & PM at Hightower Advisors. CNBC contributor. Treasure family time & a good run. Proud BC alum.
Nice reversal today into seasonally strongest time of year - $SPX up 8.5% on ave in 4Q led by fins, tech, industs, discresh.
Added to EPS "disappointments" where #s went higher: $UBER$META$MSFT + $SBUX turn.
Going retro: The Beatles - Come together.
Enjoy the weekend!
$SBUX: this has caught my attention - the stock rallied 48% after the CEO Brian Niccol news and yet it has now given all of it back. Will chat tomorrow morning on @SquawkCNBC about it and other ideas. Can't wait to be back in the USA to chat!
$ROK: great to see new CFO helping to gain credibility and solid results. Beat EPS, TR, NI, OM. Organic sales growth 13% vs 3% Q/Q, OM up 240 bps Y/Y and FCF up 21%. Guide higher as well.
$ETN: Mega projects at $239B up 18% - with a win rate of 40% = solid visibility ahead. Electrical backlog up 20% and Aero up 15%. + Data Center orders up 70%, sales up 40% and backlogs set for the next 2 years with a BtB at 1.7x. EPS reactions can be opportunities for LT.
$UBER: beat EPS/Revs/Bkg's/Net Income/MAUs but fell on the EBITDA miss/guide. Heavier investment spend is important for the co to grow - and with Mobility bookings up 20%, Delivery up 25% and trips up 22% - i'd say it's working.
$FTNT: certainly a mixed Q and guide but moving the lense a bit - product rev up 18%, Services up 13%, billings up 14%, OM a 400 bps beat and a buy back of 3% of shares outstanding - for a 3x multiple historical discount in a TAM bigger than AI. Not involved but stay tuned.
$ETN acquires Boyd Thermal for $9.5bn to further liquid cooling portfolio as the industry continues to look for power. We are under supplied in power for the AI build.
datacenterdynamics.com/en/ne…
Interesting seasonal stat on homebuilders from Wolfe Rx: From 2000-2024 returned +11.6% on average for each Nov-Jan period + outperformed the $SPX in 77% of periods since 2000, outpacing the market by +8.7% on average per period.
$TOL$DHI$LEN
It was a fun week of EPS and learned a lot! 63% of $SPX cos have reported DD growth. Even got a few buying opportunities. More next week!
Enjoy an underrated one from Mark Knopfler -
Going Home: Theme of the local hero (A night in London).
$MS analysis: "we now expect data center spend from the Big 6 players to reach $591B in 2026 and $700B in 2027. Wow. Great for infrastructure plays who will help to build out DC, Grid, Power.
$COIN: strong Q beat w consumer trading vol +37% Q/Q, consumer transax rev +30% Q/Q, institutional transax rev +122% Q/Q & total trading vol at $295B. Recurring revenue - a plus w stablecoin rev at $355M & blockchain rewards at $185M. Co ended Q w $516B of assets on platform.
$AWS cc: $132b run rate business with a $200b backlog now - which is still not factoring in some deals they just signed in the end of Q3. “These deals combined are larger than our total deal volume for all of Q3.”
All this debate about the slowing growth at AWS at $AMZN and they just beat expectations and grew at 20% - ahead of 18.5%-19% whisper. Recall, they have the largest share at 30% vs Azure at 20% and GCS at 13%. 4Q OI and TR guide also ahead.