so let me get this right: Oracle says Openai committed $300B for cloud compute → oracle stock jumps 36% (best day since 1992) Oracle runs on Nvidia GPUs → has to buy billions in chips from Nvidia Nvidia just announced they're investing $100B into openai Openai uses that money to... pay oracle... who pays Nvidia... who invests in Openai

Sep 22, 2025 · 5:21 PM UTC

Replying to @SullyOmarr
I hate to be the one that breaks this to you - but the entire global economy is a single closed system.
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I guess this is true but also this seems worse because it’s 3-4 companies
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
You forgot to mention that NVIDIA invested in INTC Intel which pumped the stock price. This type of behavior suggests that they are largely out of ideas and are leaning into money spinners.
forgot about this one
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Anyone who's lived through these bubbles understands that none of this analysis matters. The only thing that matters is whether you have a chair when the music stops.
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Open AI, Nvidia, Oracle, Meta & AMD
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
in short,
Nvidia investing $100B into OpenAI in order for OpenAI to buy more Nvidia chips
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
this is what tops look like
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
REINFORCEMENT LEARNING
NVIDIA 🔄 OpenAI
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
The market that pumps money into all three companies are footing the circle jerk
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Sounds about right
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
It’s a VINDALOOP
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If Bernie Madoff were alive he would marvel at this scheme.
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
It's called Barter dealing. It was common during the 2000s dot-com bubble.
BARTER DEALS When you invest in a startup using non-cash instruments. We are now seeing this happening with all of the AI startups like Anthropic, which allegedly received a $4B investment (not valuation) from Amazon. However, the private term sheet is disclosed. It is unlikely that Amazon is paying cash, but offers something else like AWS credit in order for Anthropic to use their cloud service infrastructure. Because you are paid with some funny instrument, or future cashflows, or services, this is called a barter deal. Because Amazon does not put cash into the deal, the valuation can be anything - Amazon can essentially print out its own money, not unlikely that SBF from FTX did. Barter deals were already popular during the dot com bubble of the 00s. It is also one of the reasons why the bubble formed and why the bubble burst. Here is an old article from 2002 about the topic: cnet.com/tech/services-and-s…
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
And 95% of corporate IQ projects have failed...
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Can one argue that this circular movement of money is how the economy works? I am an engineer and spend money to buy food which pays the farmer who buys John Deere tractors who pay me a salary as an engineer to design tractors. Isn't that how the economy works?
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Nvidia gave its first DGX away for free? was super bearish in this way of thinking.
Back in 2016, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang donated the world’s first DGX-1 server to AI startup OpenAI. I guess NVDA bears would have said Nvidia was funding its own customers, since nobody bought Nvidia’s data center products, it had to even give them away for free. They are still bears now, meanwhile NVDA stock has gone from ~$0.7 split adjusted to $183 now.
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Details here :
$NVDA & OpenAI: $100B IOU — Round & Round? $100B LOI to OpenAI + $60B buybacks vs $11B cash? $27.8B receivables, up $4.7B in 6 months? DSO stretched from 48 → 54 days? Is Nvidia funding its own demand? Click the link ⬇️ to read more. open.substack.com/pub/coasta…
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Yeah even money has a revolving door principle. Cycle of Bullishittery as evals go up, some get rich "on paper" while plenty take home cold hard cash.
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
I remember a guy in the 1980s who organized something similar with high yield (junk) bonds. he went to jail. Michael Milken is his name.
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
I know this is ancient history no longer taught in schools but: in the 1990s, we had this thing called the "dotcom boom" where the capital combinatorial russian doll ouroboros was perfected. At the time I referred to it as "the new economy" and thus the universe bankrupted me instantly. It's back.
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@SullyOmarr Fascinating loop—Nvidia's cash fueling OpenAI's Oracle spend, which loops back to more GPUs. But let's dig deeper: 1. With 10GW of power in play, how sustainable is this energy demand? Blackouts or greenwashing ahead? 2. Antitrust red flags? Is this just the Big Three (Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle) cornering AI, squeezing out smaller players? 3. Bubble or boom? What's the real ROI if half these models are just fancy autocomplete—innovation or speculation? Thoughts? 🚀
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
they’re going to make a song called round tripping with my favorite allies
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
Is that even legal?
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
The trinity
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Replying to @SullyOmarr
The railroad burns coal to transport more coal to the steel mill which makes steel to build more railroad.
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