Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement caused a full-blown labor market meltdown.* Tariffs, which are a tax on imported goods, caused price hikes and a resurgence of inflation but also increased the risk of an economic downturn. The Fed was faced with managing rates to navigate between twin risks of inflation and recession. The Fed couldn't lower interest rates as quickly as they would have if inflation fears had receded. Higher interest rates tamped down home buyer and car loan demand.
*By April 2025, new jobs were down -31% since the +256,000 jobs in December 2024, Joe Biden’s last full month in office, May down -93%, June down -105%, July down -69% and August down -91%. Federal government employment as of September 2025 down -97,000 since Jan 2025. Every week, Trump’s minions have claimed that tariffs would bring back jobs to the United States. Instead, they caused a full-blown labor market meltdown.