I agree with this. Daily life won’t change that much this decade, but everything will change next decade - slowly, then all of a sudden
My baseline case is that the AI being built right now is overrated; soon it will be a disappointment; then it will be a bubble; and, by the 2030s, it will be world-changing.
Self-driving cars are a model for this.
- In 2015, I heard autonomy was 5 years away from taking over the roads.
- In 2020, they were nowhere.
- Even in 2022, you could say they were a huge disappointment.
- Now, they're quietly a revolution.
Driverless taxi usage in CA grew 8x in one year, and Waymo is expanding to other cities.