Everyone’s trying to explain Bitcoin’s behavior through narratives; ETFs, halving effects, election cycles - but I keep coming back to one thing: Monetary policy still runs the show. Liquidity, rate direction, and central bank balance sheets have dictated every major Bitcoin cycle so far. Narratives and sentiment follow policy - they don’t lead it. Right now, Bitcoin feels like it’s standing at a crossroads. Based on past post-halving patterns, 2026 could shape up to be a corrective year, more like 2014, 2018, or 2022. That doesn’t guarantee a repeat, but the structure rhymes: cooling momentum, tightening liquidity, and fading retail enthusiasm. Cycle Context Bitcoin usually peaks in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year; 2013, 2017, 2021 all followed that rhythm. If October ends up being the high this time, it would fit that historical pattern almost perfectly. Macro Environment In 2019, Bitcoin topped a few months before Quantitative Tightening (QT) ended - as markets began pricing in easing early. QT is expected to wrap up around December 2025, making this an important window. With rate-cut odds near 70%, a move toward the 4% neutral range could boost liquidity, but until QT ends, conditions stay tight - a backdrop that usually keeps pressure on risk assets and altcoins. Technical Structure Bitcoin sits around its 50-week MA (~$103K). Several weekly closes beneath that level would make it hard to ignore the idea that a top might be forming. Momentum has weakened for months - the weekly RSI shows lower highs, and a daily death cross is lining up for mid-November. Earlier in this cycle, each rebound was smaller: ~200% → 118% → 68%. The decrease of velocity indicates how much energy has been drained from this expansion. For perspective, Bitcoin’s price today is roughly where it was 11 months ago. Flat performance like that often signals the late stages of a major move. Market Parallels to 2019 This setup looks familiar. Back in 2019, Bitcoin kept pulling liquidity out of altcoins while repeatedly testing $10K. Now it’s holding just above $100K and doing the same thing - drawing capital away from the rest of the market. In 2019, the alt/BTC ratio fell ~47% while Bitcoin stayed range-bound. Today it’s near 0.36, and past cycles bottomed closer to 0.25 - a level worth watching before rotation resets. That shift could happen in a few ways: • Bitcoin dips and altcoins fall harder. • Bitcoin rallies but alts fail to follow. • Or Bitcoin chops sideways while alts keep bleeding. Retail Participation Retail activity remains muted. On-chain data, exchange volume, and search trends all point to limited participation - far below prior peaks. Retail usually fuels the final euphoric wave, but this cycle feels driven by institutional liquidity instead. Without fresh retail liquidity, rallies fade faster. Volume confirms it - large players are setting the tone, not public enthusiasm. Bitcoin Dominance Dominance has climbed steadily through QT. That’s not random - when liquidity is tight, capital flows into assets with the highest perceived safety and liquidity. Bitcoin captures that first. Historically, dominance peaks around 58-60%, and sometimes even overshoots briefly before flattening when policy begins to ease. If that holds, we could see dominance continue to rise through year-end, then plateau once easing starts. Until that point, strong dominance remains a challenge for alts. Bitcoin vs Altcoins A Bitcoin top doesn’t always mean an altcoin top. Alts usually peak later, after BTC’s price and dominance push higher to recycle liquidity. But if BTC fails to gain traction, alts won’t have the momentum to outperform. So while Bitcoin topping doesn’t end the cycle, it likely shortens the window for strong alt performance. Ethereum and Large Caps Ethereum hit a new ATH this cycle and now tests its 50-week MA - similar to Solana’s structure last cycle: rejection, retest, then possibly one last move before reversal. If another leg higher comes, it likely starts with Bitcoin - the rest would follow more weakly until policy eases. Policy, Narratives, and Psychology Every cycle creates new stories to justify what prices are doing. But the order rarely changes - prices move first, and narratives come later to explain them. ETF flows are a good example. They make a nice story, but they’re ultimately a symptom of liquidity, not the source of it. When liquidity tightens, capital piles into safety. When it eases, speculation returns. That’s why I keep my focus on monetary policy over market narratives. Policy sets the stage. Everything else - sector rotations, hype cycles, even tech innovations - are secondary reflections of liquidity conditions. Strategy and Outlook If Bitcoin closes multiple weeks below the 50-week MA, I’d see that as evidence that a top may have formed. If it reclaims that level and holds, one more BTC-led leg higher could still unfold before the broader correction plays out. Either way, Bitcoin dominance likely stays firm in the near term. Alts need both a rise in BTC price and dominance before they can meaningfully recover. Without that, rallies will keep fading faster. As always, the market rewards patience more than prediction. Chasing short-term moves rarely works. If this proves to be the top, the next 6-12 months may test discipline more than strategy - a reminder to trade the market we have, not the one we want. Key Takeaways • Bitcoin may be forming a late-cycle top as liquidity stays tight. • QT is set to end in December - a potential pivot point for liquidity. • Monetary policy remains the most important factor to watch. • BTC dominance likely continues to rise until easing begins. • Altcoins historically bottom near 0.25 on the alt/BTC ratio. • A BTC top ≠ an alt top - but alts need BTC strength to recover. • The 200W MA near $55K could act as long-term support if we enter a corrective phase. You can talk narratives all day, but liquidity still calls the shots. Monetary policy writes the story - everything else just follows.

Dept acceleration incoming. The dollar will drop further.

Hyperliquid has just 11 employees and over $100M in revenue per employee. More than Tether, Apple, Nvidia, and OnlyFans. Perps DEXs aren’t just disrupting exchanges. They’re becoming one of the highest-margin industries on the planet. No CAC. No offices. No regulatory overhead. CEXs grew by getting bigger. DEXs win by getting leaner. If this is what 11 people can do, could DEXs eventually surpass CEXs?

The “Alt Seasons” we did have were short-term liquidity extractions. The rotations from chains to narratives were extremely fast, and data shows that most alt traders were unprofitable. Most people are better off sticking to BTC, like you’ve been saying.

Marketing is easier when you have a great product

Your investing improves when you consider opposing views. It opens your perspective and helps you avoid confirmation bias.

AI will only cause more people to lose their jobs. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised if a large % of the workforce won’t have a job in the coming decades. Yes there will be jobs created because of AI, but I don’t believe it will balance out the lost jobs. Scary times ahead.

COVID crash: $1.2B in liquidations FTX crash: $1.6B in liquidations Yesterday: $2.1B in liquidations

Just like government workers, the U.S. Lawmakers shouldn't get paid during a shutdown. This would quickly resolve the government shutdown.

Millennials are leaning socialist, and Zohran Mamdani’s New York win shows why. They’re crushed by debt, priced out of homes, and locked out of capital. When people have no stake in the capitalist system, it’s no wonder they stop believing in it.

Congrats, New York. You voted to “tax the rich.” The top 1% already pay nearly half the city’s personal income taxes. Push them out and NYC loses hundreds of millions. Guess who covers the gap? Your rent, your groceries, your paycheck.

Uber’s business model was never built around keeping human drivers. The real endgame has always been to dominate the market and replace drivers with automation to become profitable.

Would be great to see BTC hold up above the current 50w MA range and potentially make a move to the upside

Too many people fail to understand what's actually leading the crypto cycles. In this detailed analysis I break down monetary policy and it's implication on the current cycle|.

Too many people focus on the wrong narratives, while monetary policy actually leads crypto.

Will release my detailed crypto market thoughts on here soon

In investing patience is what rewards you. That often means not following your emotions.

Personally I’m optimistic for crypto, but I’m always cautious for the possibilities of a bear market. Don’t get married to one specific view always be open to adjusting your outlook based on data and analysis.

Scary time for Bitcoin as currently we’re around the 50w moving average

We’re in scary territory for Bitcoin and the Crypto Markets.