진성준은, 또 자기일 하는거 ㄸ찍먹당 78월처럼 간보기 밀땅. ㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡ 진성준 “배당소득 분리과세는 초부자 감세···민주당, 세수 확보 용기 내야” | 다음 - 경향신문 v.daum.net/v/202511091701464…

SOFR’s Drop Is The Market Front Running the Fed That sharp plunge in SOFR is the money markets reacting before the headlines. The system is already adjusting to what’s now effectively policy: the Fed cutting twice this fall, announcing an end to balance sheet runoff on December 1, and redirecting maturing assets toward the short end of the curve. Liquidity is being rerouted. And that change matters. What’s Actually Happening SOFR, the rate for borrowing cash overnight against Treasuries, just collapsed because there’s suddenly more cash than collateral. That’s what happens when the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet and starts reinvesting every maturing security. Reserves rise, collateral gets absorbed, and the cost of short term money drops. The Fed isn’t expanding its balance sheet, but it’s changing what it holds: •Treasuries: Every maturing note will now be rolled over, freezing the size of the portfolio and halting QT. •MBS: Mortgage holdings will be allowed to run off, with proceeds redirected into Treasury bills, the most liquid assets in the world. •Result: The balance sheet stops shrinking, but its liquidity velocity increases. That’s not QE by name, but it acts like it. How It Ripples Through the System Front End (Bills & Repo) With the Fed buying T bills, collateral scarcity disappears. Dealers find funding easier, repo rates (and SOFR) drop, and short term yields sink toward the floor of the policy range. The one to three month space becomes the new carry trade. Banks & Funding Cheaper overnight money eases funding stress and cushions balance sheets. Liquidity ratios look healthier. But easy funding always reignites leverage…basis trades, structured credit, and synthetic duration quietly return. Credit & Risk Assets Lower funding costs tighten credit spreads and boost valuations. It’s not a full blown stimulus, but it behaves like one. Corporates refinance, junk issuance rises, and equity multiples expand on the illusion of easier conditions. Housing & Mortgages The Fed’s pivot away from MBS means mortgage rates won’t follow the front end down one for one. Refinancing improves slightly, but housing won’t get the same liquidity tailwind. The liquidity flow is going to markets, not Main Street. Long End of the Curve The 20 and 30 year yields holding near 4.7% reveal the underlying truth…fiscal supply remains massive, inflation expectations sticky, and global buyers cautious. The short end can ease, but the long end keeps reminding us where the real strain sits. The Calm Is Manufactured Dropping repo rates look like stability, but this calm is engineered. The Fed isn’t stimulating demand, it’s suppressing stress. By managing where liquidity goes rather than how much there is, the system stays orderly on the surface while leverage quietly expands beneath it. Markets love this version of control. Funding gets cheap, volatility fades, and asset prices levitate. But it’s not organic growth, it’s sedation. What To Expect Next •An anchored front end around 4%, as T bill demand absorbs new supply. •Rising hidden leverage, more carry trades and balance sheet stretching. •Falling cash yields, the 5% era for money market funds is ending. •A softer dollar. cheaper U.S. funding trims its global carry premium. The Bottom Line SOFR’s drop is the first tremor of a familiar pattern: re-liquifying the system without saying it out loud. It stabilizes markets, props up valuations, and stretches the cycle but it doesn’t fix the imbalance beneath it. Liquidity always feels like safety on the way in. But underneath, it’s still leverage waiting for a spark.