As we count down to the historic launch of Bitcoin ETF options in less than 12 hours, I wanted to share a few thoughts: 1- IBIT was approved for only 25,000 contracts as a position limit. At this level, the exercisable risk represents less than 0.5% of IBIT's outstanding shares. Even with a position limit of 400,000 options, the exercisable risk would have only reached 7% of the outstanding shares. IBIT should have qualified for 400,000 options. To put this into context, CME Bitcoin futures contracts have a 2,000-contract limit, which is equivalent to about 175,000 contracts for IBIT. Instead, we were given just 280 Bitcoin futures contracts. While I’m thrilled we’ve crossed the finish line—especially in 2024—it’s hard to ignore the lingering special treatment Bitcoin continues to receive. I long for the day when Bitcoin is no longer marked with an asterisk. 2- I have immense gratitude for the @CFTC, both for the speed with which they acted and for their lack of political maneuvering. It’s clear to me that CME Group would prefer Bitcoin to trade primarily as futures, positioning itself as the dominant market with launches like "BFFs." If the CFTC had been as politicized as the SEC, we might not have had a fair launch at all. Their willingness to cede authority for ETF options to the SEC, recognizing them as securities within the scope of the law, is commendable. It’s worth noting we wouldn’t have Bitcoin ETFs today without the futures market paving the way too. 3- Combining above 1 and 2, the final point I wanted to share was: we’re about to see multiple options contracts across multiple issuers, all tracking the same extremely liquid underlying asset, something that hasn't ever been seen before in the options world. The narrow 25,000-contract limit may create unusual market dynamics, with natural buyers and sellers interacting across different volatility surfaces. So if you believe IBIT’s options chain is likely going to be the “most institutional” and therefore the“least arbitrage-able,” I’d personally urge sophisticated retail traders to explore options from other issuers as well. There could be opportunities—glitches, if you will—on these contracts that work in your favor. It's crypto after all. With that, I wish everyone good luck and godspeed. See you tomorrow at 9:30 AM! 🫡

Nov 19, 2024 · 4:29 AM UTC

Replying to @dgt10011
God bless the CME (where I learned to trade eons ago) for always being an early innovator & trailblazer of risk transfer, price discovery, and liquidity. When Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971, it only took until May '72 to launch currency futures (h/t Milton Friedman).
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Replying to @dgt10011
Game time for BTC.
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Replying to @dgt10011
Could you dumb down #1 further? How does that affect an individual?
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options are cool, or just buy $BITX 👀 🔥
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I asked @grok to explain. 1/3 The limits referred to in the post by Jeff Park (@dgt10011) are the position limits for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options contracts, set at 25,000 contracts. This limit determines how many contracts one can hold, and it's noted that this exercisable risk represents less than 0.5% of IBIT's outstanding shares. This cap was set to prevent market manipulation and ensure stability, although Jeff mentions it's quite conservative compared to other ETFs which might have limits up to 250,000 contracts.
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Replying to @dgt10011
Will this diminish the demand for mstr options?
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Replying to @dgt10011
When will the other ETFs trade options? Isn't the 25,000 limit per account? Hope to see liquidity, definitely some arbitrage. Tragically market makers usually win this game.
Replying to @dgt10011
Interesting, seems lame to limit it, but when can they reevaluate?
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Replying to @dgt10011
CME Futures were the worst thing to ever happen to #Bitcoin... Been manipulated af ever since
It went up like .57 seriously wtf