Until we actually see: the balance sheet turning up clearly, rate cuts alongside that, and deficits staying large, this remains a setup, not a guarantee. But if all three line up, then yes, easing into this kind of market is exactly the environment where the biggest bubbles and the biggest gains are created. That’s the core of the thesis.

So the thesis here is simple and conditional: The Fed has not announced QE. It has signalled that reserve growth is possible and likely at some point. If that signal turns into actual balance sheet expansion in this macro backdrop, history says: → risk assets can experience a very strong final upside phase → especially AI, growth, commodities, gold, and Bitcoin.

The risk comes later: If balance sheet expansion becomes large and fiscal deficits stay high, inflation can re-accelerate. At that point, the central bank is forced to: slow purchases raise rates again or at least stop cutting That’s when the bubble usually ends. But that is not the starting point. The starting point is usually very bullish.

There is also a timing lag. When liquidity increases: financial assets react quickly consumer-price inflation reacts with a delay So there is often a 6–12 month window where: stocks, crypto, and commodities perform well central banks still argue that inflation is manageable This window is what traders often ride as the melt up, even though fundamentally it’s a fragile phase.

In simple words: If investors expect more money and credit to be created, they look for assets that: cannot be printed can absorb big flows and have strong narratives That is why gold, and Bitcoin usually lead in a late cycle easing phase.

On top of that, you have the asset choice logic: A 10y Treasury gives you a fixed yield (say ~4%). Gold gives 0%. Bitcoin gives 0%. But if the expected inflation rate and money creation go up, the real return on bonds falls, while the relative appeal of scarce assets rises. This is why gold and BTC often rally when people believe money printing is coming back.

Mechanically, if the Fed starts adding reserves in size: Bank reserves rise Funding stress in money markets falls Real yields tend to drift lower Valuation multiples on long-duration assets (tech, AI, growth, Bitcoin) usually expand That is not opinion. We have already seen that pattern in prior QE phases.

This is where the bubble thesis comes from. A bubble does not need a crash first. A bubble needs: cheap money strong sentiment and a good story (right now that’s AI, productivity, etc.) Adding liquidity in that context tends to inflate prices further rather than normalise them.

What makes this even more important is the starting point. Today: Equity valuations are already elevated. AI / tech multiples are high. Private credit and capital markets are still active. Credit spreads are tight, not stressed. So if liquidity is added here, it is not fixing a broken market. It is feeding a market that is already expensive.

That difference matters. QE into a crisis = support. QE into a strong market = amplifier. If the balance sheet starts increasing while financial conditions are already easy, you are no longer just stabilising the system. You are pushing an existing uptrend further.

The current macro data is different: GDP growth positive labour market still tight no deep recession credit spreads near cycle lows So if QE happens here, it is not the same as 2008 or 2020.

In the past, large Fed balance sheet expansions came in a crisis: 2008: banking system broken 2020: real economy shut down Liquidity was added to stop a collapse.

Now the thesis: If the Fed ends QT and starts net adding reserves in an environment where: stocks are near highs unemployment is low inflation is above target fiscal deficits are large ...then that is a classic late-cycle liquidity phase, and historically it has been very bullish for asset prices.

So, facts first: QT is still ongoing. The Fed has only said that, in the future, reserves may have to grow again. There is no fixed date, no program, no size announced. Everything beyond this is scenario analysis, not “QE is live.”

Most people ignored the most important line from Powell. He said that "at a certain point, you’ll want reserves to start gradually growing to keep up with the size of the banking system and the size of the economy." That is not an official QE announcement. But it does open the door for balance sheet expansion again.

Liquidity Is Coming Back and Markets Can Feel It. The Fed hasn’t announced QE Yet. But they just told you it’s coming. Reserves will start rising again. And that small shift changes everything. 🧵

Coinbase is doing some bidding today. US market will open in just 20 minutes, so keep an eye on this. If we see some bidding on Coinbase, $BTC could push above $105,000 level resistance.

Spot Solana ETF is pulling steady inflows, while Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to see outflows. Clear signal of shifting market preference and growing conviction behind Solana’s momentum. If this flow trend holds, it could force broader repositioning in the market.

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