As of now the market has priced in 1 deal in for
$CIFR I believe the stock is now tracing to new highs for a potential second deal by the end of the year.
$CIFR Currently has 56 MW available now at Barber Lake and 150MW to 300MW at Black Pearl. We do not know the size of the next deal but I believe at a minimum it will take the stock to a $10B Mkt Cap.
Their cash sits at very healthy position with the CEO in a recent X space saying they have allot of cash right now, more cash than they thought they needed and they are in very healthy spot.
Cipher has also expressed buying GPU's and plugging them in to rent. If they decide that entering into the neo cloud is the right move which I think it will be it will be something that the market has not yet priced in.
Power in Texas has some of the most affordable industrial energy rates in the country. Many companies like Oracle, Crusoe, CoreWeave, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta and Google are building AI Data Centers which further validates the Cipher-Texas thesis.
What Investors dont understand is the future potential of their pipeline and how much closer they are to energization than many other BTC to DC payers in the space. Right now Cipher is sitting on 5 Sites with energization very soon. 2 of those site expect energization by 2026 and 2027. 3 of those site are the 3M Sites (McLennan, Mikeska, and Milsin) all near Dallas a Tier 1 data center market and a central communications and peering hub. The 3M sites are 500MW each and were acquired in 2024. The image is a chart of the Load Interconnection Queue by MW's and Year.
The 3M sites fall into the "Planning Studies Approved", 1 tier before "Approved to Energized but not Operational".
Cipher Mining's Statement: The company stated that the sites are "currently undergoing final interconnect approval processes" and the capacity is "pending... completion of load studies at all three sites with decisions expected later this year."
ERCOT Definition: The "Planning Studies Approved" category applies to "Projects that have received ERCOT approval of required interconnection studies."
The Total Load in the queue is projected to increase from 33,856 MW in 2027 to 137,001 MW in 2028, and over 188,328 MW in 2030.
The 1.5 GW (1,500 MW) of capacity for the McLennan, Mikeska, and Milsing sites is a substantial portion of the expected total capacity coming online for the years 2027/2028, and is what Cipher is using to secure its place in the large-scale data center market.
Cipher could potentially get approval by the end of 2025. Once Cipher Mining secures the final ERCOT interconnection approval for the 1.5 GW 3M sites, the sites immediately become significantly more desirable and easier to colocate than sites still waiting for that approval.
Imagine when Cipher gets the energization approval for those three sites. The market is not currently pricing any of this in. Right now, the market is just focusing on Bitcoin miners turning to AI/HPC and pumping them all, when in fact there are very few truly good ones with the great portfolio and management. As time goes on, the market will be a weighing machine instead of a voting machine.
For new investors or people that want to learn: Why is energization so important?
Megawatts (MW) are currently very important and highly in demand. The sooner that Cipher gets access to this, the more valuable it becomes. Of course, you can't rush greatness, so when it happens, it happens. But energization approvals can take years and will only take longer the more MW are being applied for. So, if you're early to the party, you are definitely steps ahead.
From a revenue standpoint, you are in a safer spot if you have MW available now because the demand is so high while the supply is so little. We don't know what the supply and demand will be five or ten years from now; we can only estimate."
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