$ONDS If they are paying 5x sales-ish that would imply $45M ARR for Sentry. That bolt on would double the ~$40M @CeoOndas has guided for UAS only for 2026. I am plucking the multiple out of air - slower growth companies are cheaper, higher growth are more expensive but a lot of variables. 5-8x would seem "reasonable" I'd think but I don't wear one of those Silicon Valley required vests that mark me as a tech bro. Even at an expensive 10x that would be $22M+ which is a nice plucky 50% non organic add on to their 2026 revenue. Hopefully it wasn't a higher multiple than that. This helps $ONDS forward valuation. I'll let you know when Eric tells me the p/s they used 😅😅

$LPTH last projection until Q1 2026 ER Tue (Jul-Sep). Living breathing document. I do believe their shares O/S might be 45M but I'll update that Tuesday. My 3 revenue scenarios for 2026 are 1) 67M - basically their current business plus everything they have publicly announced 2) 74.5M - scenario 1 with very modest growth 3) 88.5M - last year's business flat + 57% of $90M backlog which CFO said would fall in fiscal (not calendar) 2026. I've chosen the middle path for conservatism. It still creates these ridiculous growth metrics. Also gross margins to recover to 30%+ this quarter after they were deflated last quarter by 1 offs. Their expectation is 35%ish "in a quarter or two" per cc. Downside risk - something got delayed by government, and pushes something or other out from Q2 26 (Oct-Dec) to Q3 2026 (Jan-Mar). Lightpath doesn't sell directly into government as best as I know, but for example it is selling into companies building the survellience ring at the southern border (towers) and selling into L3 Harris for a Navy program. I am trying to find an earnings call scenario to get that $5.59 gap filled next week outside of the current baby with the bathwater selling in the market.... which could also do the trick. Doesn't change 1 iota about where the year is going and how undervalued this thing is.

$KRMN Q3 & CC A non prime defense company, plying all sort of exciting spaces. @karman_spacedef karman-sd.com Maybe if their CEO wore Hawaiian shirts, flip flops, and sported a mullet it would get more attention but works for me. Feb IPO around $30 - rallied to almost $90. I didn't pay enough attention to it early in its public life. Kept hitting my screens this summer and I finally took the plunge (but currently out) High on radar (no pun intended) go forward next few years. Feels like one for non traders you buy some shares and stick in the shoebox under the bed and come back to in 5 years. But for traders: First public earnings, revenue growth +30%. Second public earnings, revenue growth +39%. Third public earnings Thu, revenue growth +42% (!) It won't keep that pace up forever but this looks like it can be a 30% grower in the next few years. Richly valued yes - but deserves to be. Premium growth = premium valuations. Obviously that comes with risk as any hiccup however minor can hurt the PPS. Which happened late this week. Prime candidate for Golden Dome awards and we have a missile replenishment cycle to boot. x.com/fundmyfund/status/1982… Who is going to benefit the most from that? "the U.S. could run out of missiles in a week if it chooses to intervene in a theoretical invasion of Taiwan by China." Karman has the largest exposure to the theme, with roughly half of its sales tied to missiles, according to Stallard. It also has a high valuation, trading for about 140 times estimated 2026 earnings. Large defense contractors that don't grow nearly as fast trade for closer to 21 times. (Karman revenue is expected almost to double over the coming three years.) ************************** Recent smaller acquisition of Five Axis gets them further into the space theme - and is accreditive per the company. $83M in cash, $5M in shares. That will begin this quarter (Q4 2025) but more of a 2026 forward thing. 10/30 announcement: Five Axis is a rapidly growing leader in the engineering and manufacturing of specialized nozzle and fuel systems that play a critical role in optimizing performance of current and next-generation engines for launch vehicles With extensive engineering and manufacturing capabilities, Five Axis is deeply embedded in major space engine programs that serve multiple launch vehicles The acquisition of Five Axis creates new opportunities to solve complex customer challenges via vertical integration by leveraging Karman’s advanced spin-forming capability to deliver a proprietary nozzle solution The acquisition adds complementary and highly technical capabilities to the Karman platform, including proprietary technologies tied to 3D-printed inconel that represent the continued expansion of Karman’s IP portfolio The acquisition is immediately accretive to Karman across all major financial metrics, including revenue growth, Adjusted EBITDA margin and cash flow ********************* Q3 specific: As mentioned 42% revenue growth @ $121.8M - beat analysts there. Missed analyst expectations on earnings I guess - I could care less at this stage of a growth company cycle. But with the high valuation it got punished. 2025 FY guide is $461-463M; with the quarter 5 weeks over and govt in shutdown we are going to take that one seriously. That implies $124-$126M to finish out the year - smallish sequential growth but will be +37% at the midpoint $125M vs prior years $91M. Still a wow number. *************************** Product line splits: They split their revenue line into 3 product lines - all growing btw 36-47% and all pretty evenly sized ~30-36% of the company. Hypersonics & Strategic Missile Defense $36.6M +36% Space & Launch $40.7M +47%* Tactical Missiles and Integrated Defense Systems $44.5M +42% *Five Axis should help this figure in 2026 All this at 41% gross margins. 80 customers, 130 programs - nice diversity "Growth in Hypersonics and Strategic Missile Defense revenue .... was primarily driven by higher production output from missile programs, such as PrSM, Standard Missile 3 and 6, and development programs. The increase also benefited from the timing of orders and was partially offset by the timing of funding for classified programs. Growth in Space and Launch revenue .... was primarily driven by the timing of orders from both legacy and emerging launch providers. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, this growth was partially offset by lower revenue from the Space Launch Systems (“SLS”). Growth in Tactical Missiles and Integrated Defense Systems .... was primarily driven by an increase in production rates for GMLRS, AIM-9X and UAS programs." *********************** Guide for 2026 was modest at 20-25% - that also means little to me as executives should promise low and clear the bar - Steve Jobs did that for a decade. That would imply $554-$577M for 2026 vs $462Mish 2025. My financial model is higher @ 30% growth and a nice round number of $600M. Record funded backlog $758.2M up from $719M in prior quarter. +31% YoY. $1.2B secondary offering out of the way. ******************** Valuation - Karman ain't cheap but deserves to be richly valued. The haircut Fri was pretty modest at the end of the day after being down a lot more earlier. My standard is forward price sales of 12x for a high growth company to see if it is undervalued or overvalued. With the $600M revenue estimate I have in place for 2026, this would imply the company is overvalued by a decent amount. But 12x sales is a random line in the sand I set - Karman is currently north of 15x. A company growing 35-40% can have a forward P/S well in excess of 12x. It is pricey as well at 22x trailing BUT again - they are growing well in excess of the defense peer group. This just says, it's not cheap like it was when it IPO'd earlier in the year. Q3 ER: investors.karman-sd.com/News… Q3 IP: s205.q4cdn.com/167499471/fil… Q3 CC: events.q4inc.com/attendee/50… Five Axis acquisition: investors.karman-sd.com/News…

$KRMN did more reading on this one this week, did more liking. $719M backlog. Looks like another multi year winner. Looking forward to next earnings call to get more info. “Robust defense funding to restock critical capabilities and build the Golden Dome for America, combined with a continued increase in U.S. space launch cadence, represent powerful tailwinds for our business beyond 2025. Karman is a new kind of space and defense company that is engineered for performance and growth. We are creating shareholder value by helping to enhance national security and enable the next-generation space economy,” Koblinski added. businesswire.com/news/home/2…

From about 2 weeks ago - Barron's $KRMN "the U.S. could run out of missiles in a week if it chooses to intervene in a theoretical invasion of Taiwan by China." Karman has the largest exposure to the theme, with roughly half of its sales tied to missiles, according to Stallard. It also has a high valuation, trading for about 140 times estimated 2026 earnings. Large defense contractors that don't grow nearly as fast trade for closer to 21 times. (Karman revenue is expected almost to double over the coming three years.) **************** The Defense Department wants more missiles. That means more business for many defense contractors. Figuring out which ones, however, isn't easy. In September, The Wall Street Journal reported that Secretary Pete Hegseth urged contractors to expand missile production — by two to four times — to prepare for potential military conflicts. The Defense Department didn't respond to a Barron's request for comment, but it told the Journal that the "effort has been a collaboration between defense industry leaders and senior Pentagon officials." "Too much is never enough," wrote Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard on Tuesday, adding that a recent war game study concluded that the U.S. could run out of missiles in a week if it chooses to intervene in a theoretical invasion of Taiwan by China. On top of that, there is a new demand for anti-drone technologies and President Donald Trump's Golden Dome missile defense shield. "While we have been highlighting strong demand for missile systems for some time, there always appears to be a higher gear," added the analyst. There are some supply-chain challenges to expanding production rapidly, he says, but the missile business is expected to see an average annual growth of 10% to 20% over the next few years. Who makes the missiles, though? The short answer is everyone. Most major defense contractors have missile businesses. Lockheed Martin makes hypersonic missiles, surface-to-air missiles, interceptors, and others. Northrop Grumman makes the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile. RTX makes Patriot interceptors. General Dynamics makes rockets as well as supplies subsystems. L3Harris Technologies supplies parts for missile makers. And Karman makes motors for rocket propulsion, among other things. Karman has the largest exposure to the theme, with roughly half of its sales tied to missiles, according to Stallard. It also has a high valuation, trading for about 140 times estimated 2026 earnings. Large defense contractors that don't grow nearly as fast trade for closer to 21 times. (Karman revenue is expected almost to double over the coming three years.) European defense contractors Leonardo and Hensoldt have about 20% of sales tied to missiles. In the U.S., Leonardo DRS has about 20% of its business tied to missiles, too. Missile-related sales for RTX, Lockheed, and L3Harris come in just below 20%. Among the U.S. stocks listed, Karman and Leonardo DRS are the most popular among Wall Street analysts, with Buy-rating ratios of 100% and 82%, respectively. The next highest ratio is 70% for L3Harris. The Buy-rating ratios for RTX, Lockheed, Northrop, and General Dynamics are 63%, 38%, 52%, and 46%, respectively. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The European Hensoldt and Leonardo Buy-rating ratios are 31% and 59%, respectively. Karman was a 2025 initial public offering, selling stock at $22 a share. On Tuesday, the stock closed at $77. Coming into Tuesday trading, shares of the major U.S. defense contractors were up an average of 28% year to date, outperforming the market. Expectations for faster missile growth have helped. Leonardo and Hensoldt stocks were up more than 100% and 200%, respectively, also boosted by increasing defense spending by European nations.

Hegseth: Speed & volume. Commercial first. $KTOS $KRMN $AVAV $RCAT $ONDS $UMAC $LPTH $KOPN $DPRO Some sweating for $RTX $LMT $GD $NOC