$FOUR those worried that Shift4 is too connected to the U.S. consumer...
They power payments in ~80% of professional sports venues and NCAA stadiums and ~40% of all hotels in the US
@FIFAWorldCup happens next year in the USA
Followed by the 2028 Summer @Olympics in Los Angeles π
When I say no downside btw, I don't mean the stock couldn't go down. I mean there was no downside potential on my day to day life. People greatly overestimate what risk means.
If I had less than $10k today and had to start my investing journey over this is what I'd do.
Drive Uber Eats (not normal Uber!!) and Door Dash 12-16 hours per day so that I could listen none stop to books, podcasts and earnings calls (this was my actual journey)
Live with my parents and eat their food so I can invest over 80% of every dollar I make into stocks until I pass $500k invested.
(The first 5-7 years are the hardest you'll ever face in investing, but once you break free, you're free forever.)
For me it didn't take 5-7 years because frankly I got lucky. When I was at $20k I all-inned on Tesla with margin. (There was no downside, the luck was how quickly the upside came) as the stock subsequently 20x'd over the next 16-24 months.
I'm thinking about canceling my @coinbase One subscription since @brian_armstrong doesn't have the balls to truly embrace the human right to privacy and enable $XMR
Big ups to @krakenfx who are undoubtedly about to take a TON of market share for actually standing up for freedom
"Three wonderful businesses is more than you need in this life to do very well". - Warren Buffett
I now own ~0.1% of $LMND
~0.08% of $PATH
~0.04% of $FOUR
Not many years left that I need to keep compounding at 200% anualized to eventually own 10% of $LMND
I am all-in $LMND.
As of today, I own 119,000 shares or ~0.159% of the company.
Here are Buffett's thoughts on the decision NOT to diversify.
"We like to put a lot of money in things that we feel strongly about... on a personal basis, I own 1 stock."
- Warren Buffett
Unfortunately for Satoshi , because Bitcoin is not private. He can't even touch his money, or the thing would crash 50% overnight π
$XMR is better than $BTC in every way
Investing in $TSLA early made me a millionaire
Investing in $LMND early made me a millionaire again and has the potential to make me a billionaire.
Yet, investing in Monero $XMR could be my greatest investment ever.
There's so much opportunity in the world guys, it's crazy.
( That said, if you follow me for stocks, feel free to ignore this post because compared to stock market investing, crypto is a degenerate mess I don't recommend anyone get into π )
In my experience, you make money sustainably only by thinking long term. That's why I try to always avoid making short-term predictions.
But for all you degens out there, I'm pretty confident $LMND is hitting $99 by year end. Simply based on technicals.
This will still be more than fifty percent below my 2026 fundamental fair value price target dropping soon.
One underappreciated aspect of Shift4 Payments $FOUR is its status as one of the earliest investors in SpaceX, stemming from CEO Jared Isaacman's longstanding friendship with Elon Musk.
Depending on the exact price paid for the stock, around 3 to 4 percent of your investment dollars are effectively purchasing SpaceX shares.
The $1 billion share buyback program announced by Shift4 in its latest earnings call will boost that percentage even further by retiring approximately 15 percent of $FOUR's outstanding shares.
This implies that even a stagnant $FOURβa highly unlikely scenario given the company's 19 percent organic growth and 61 percent overall growth year-over-year including acquisitionsβcould still see its stock price rise by 40 percent if SpaceX's valuation increases tenfold.
This Saturday evening I have a hours of Shift4's CEO Taylor Lauber interviews in my watch later playlist from the last few months and I'm about to soak in as much insight as I can from him on a casual 3 hour walk. πͺ
Here's a few if anyone wants to join me: piped.video/watch?v=f-6a2DoWβ¦
piped.video/watch?v=Q5gZx06Pβ¦
Also some channel I have never watched before uploaded a 1hour 20min $FOUR deep dive last month so I'm going to give that a watch as well: (comments look really positive) piped.video/watch?v=BvUPml_Oβ¦
Also here is a livestream my brother did a few months back where he watches the entire Shift4 investor day live: piped.video/live/rJKlh9TP8x0β¦
Early this year when I started posting about $LMND every day: "LEMONADE IS JUST AN INSURANCE COMPANY, THAT'S NOT EXCITING, IT'LL NEVER GET BID ABOVE $30."
Now that $LMND has tripped and I've started posting about $FOUR as well: "SHIFT4 IS JUST A PAYMENTS PROCCESSOR, THAT'S NOT EXCITING, IT'LL NEVER GET BID ABOVE $70."
ok βΊοΈ
This Saturday evening I have a hours of Shift4's CEO Taylor Lauber interviews in my watch later playlist from the last few months and I'm about to soak in as much insight as I can from him on a casual 3 hour walk. πͺ
Here's a few if anyone wants to join me: piped.video/watch?v=f-6a2DoWβ¦
piped.video/watch?v=Q5gZx06Pβ¦
Also some channel I have never watched before uploaded a 1hour 20min $FOUR deep dive last month so I'm going to give that a watch as well: (comments look really positive) piped.video/watch?v=BvUPml_Oβ¦
Also here is a livestream my brother did a few months back where he watches the entire Shift4 investor day live: piped.video/live/rJKlh9TP8x0β¦
Peter Lynch's primary rule of thumb was that a fairly valued company should have its P/E ratio equal to its earnings growth rate, which means a PEG (Price Earnings Growth) ratio of 1 or below is ideal.
$FOUR stock PEG ratio: 0.34
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
$FOUR's 19% organic growth rate is more than double their Enterprise Value to look thru earnings of 7.7x
Peter Lynch taught a company sustainably growing at a rate double its P/E is a certified banger.
With acquisitions, which will continue, $FOUR will sustainably grow 3x faster than its forward PE of 11.74x through 2030 and is currently growing ~5x faster at 61% YoY growth last quarter.
Shift4's acquisition strategy is freaking brilliant but requires watching hours of investor presentations to understand.
They buy software companies that serve customers that Shift4 wants ( like restaurants , hotels , sports venues , anything that does a lot of payment volume).
Normally, the business model of these software companies is to charge for the software and integrate a third-party payment processor.
After $FOUR makes the acquisition, they replace the third-party payment processor with themselves and make the software free.
This allows the software to become far more dominant in its market and unlocks billions of dollars of additional payment volume for shift4 to process, which is highly profitable for them.
Wall Street looks at Shift4 without understanding this strategy at all and says, "Boo. We don't wanna company that grows through acquisitions. We only want organic growth because that's sustainable."
They have no idea how sustainable and brilliant $FOUR's growth strategy actually is.
Also, $FOUR dominates so many markets, and most people don't even know that they're using Shift4 every day.
By the way.
Even though Lemonade is a consistent sort of company that can be modeled out long term, I do expect our model will be wrong to some extent.
The goal of modeling out years is not perfectly predicting the future , but rather to understand where things are headed directionally.
Investing is one of the few games where if you are directionally correct, you'll do very well.
My guess is our model will end up being far too conservative.
Fair value in 2025 for $LMND is $190.
I have been saying this consistently since the stock was far below $30.
This price target is reached by discounting our 10-year expected fair value in 2035 by 15% annually.
Our fair value model is a slight variation on Warren Buffett's own discounted free cash flow model.
Not all companies can be modeled out ten years with a high level of certainty. Lemonade is one of the few that can be.
