Pleased to announce this groundbreaking research our Research Team published together with our partners at KPLER. If you are interested in estimating refiner earnings accurately, this is state of the art. $PSX Nice job team! kpler.com/blog/using-kpler-r…

“Microsoft has developed toolkits to convert CUDA models to AMD’s ROCm so they can run on the MI300X. There has been a significant increase in inquiries regarding the MI400X and MI450X roadmap, and Microsoft is working closely with AMD to maximize performance.” 👀

SanDisk reportedly hikes NAND prices 50% as memory module makers post strong results Memory prices have sharply rebounded in the third quarter of 2025, supported by increases in both volume and unit prices, boosting financial results for leading memory module manufacturers. Companies including Transcend, Innodisk, and Apacer Technology reported substantial year-on-year and sequential growth in revenue and net profit. According to market sources, supply constraints contributed to price gains. SanDisk, a major US-based NAND Flash supplier, notified customers of a 50% increase in contract prices for November. In response, Transcend suspended quoting and shipments starting from November 7, anticipating continued favorable market conditions. Transcend reported consolidated revenue of NT$4.11 billion (US$133 million) in the third quarter of 2025, up 27.2% from the previous quarter and 63.2% year-on-year. Gross profit reached NT$1.857 billion, marking a 67.5% sequential increase and a 154% rise compared to the same period in 2024, with gross margin climbing to 45.21%. Operating income rose 94% quarter-on-quarter and 236% year-over-year to NT$1.512 billion, yielding an operating margin of 36.82%. Net profit after tax surged 259% from the second quarter and 333.9% year-over-year to NT$1.51 billion. Transcend attributed growth to supply concentration at wafer fabs, which focused on high-end products such as DDR5 and HBM for AI servers and high-performance computing. This strategy reduced DDR4 supply, which remains the mainstream configuration for enterprise servers, industrial control systems, and embedded devices, driving price increases and revenue growth. In October, Transcend reported consolidated revenue of NT$1.723 billion, representing a 119.63% year-over-year rise. Additionally, the board approved the appointment of Teri Chang as president, effective November 6. Innodisk posted third-quarter revenue of NT$3.807 billion, up 64% year-over-year, with gross profit of NT$1.248 billion and a gross margin of 32.8%, improving 6.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. Operating income reached NT$720 million, corresponding to an operating margin of 18.85%, while net profit after tax surged to NT$640 million, up 271% sequentially and 247% year-over-year. Apacer Technology recorded third-quarter revenue of NT$3.2245 billion, approximately 69.89% higher than the same quarter in 2024, with gross profit of NT$593 million and a gross margin of 18.4%. Operating income was NT$268 million (8.3% margin), and net profit attributable to the parent company reached NT$219 million, rising 67.71% from the second quarter and 511.47% year-over-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, Apacer reported revenue of NT$7.986 billion, a 39.41% year-over-year increase, with net profit of NT$443 million, up 82.68%. As a result of tight supply and slow demand shifts, Transcend expects the memory market to maintain upward momentum. Companies are monitoring market conditions closely, balancing production schedules and price adjustments to sustain revenue growth while maintaining stable gross margins. $SNDK

1) $SNDK Dec Q guide. EPS $3.30 vs $1.76 cons. Looks great, but had to be great. SNDK will prob beat that, and I'd be surprised if EPS runrate wasn't above $25 vs $10 cons within a few quarters. Whether stock is up or down tomorrow, what really matters is earnings runrate thru 2026 and market's view of peak & normalized earnings. 1st order framework is same as DRAM. TLC, QLC, SSD etc prices are up big, but not nearly as much as DRAM. Assume commodity spots are up 50%. Contracts lags. Assume base. 100 price/70 cost = 30% GM. Price lags spot. If prices are +20% QoQ? 120 price/70 cost = 42% GM. That's EPS > $3.3 Dec Q guide. If & when ASPs are up, say 40%, a full Q? 140 price/70 cost = 50% GM. That's EPS > $25 runrate few Q's out. This is only a 0th order framework. Models will include bits, mix, startup & underutilization charges (now gone), cost declines etc. And most importantly, future EB demand curve due to AI and resulting prices. Maybe spot flatlines. Or goes up. Or down? There's huge variability since everything drops to bottom line. Q&A is ongoing & further comments around BiCS8 & DC SSD quals & ramps, supply/demand & secular demand due to AI are important. Details later.

OPEX to CAPEX

With Pelosi’s announced retirement, Congress is losing one of its longest-serving members — and its top hedge fund manager.

Ok, here you go

How Real-Time Flow Data Revealed the Palantir Sell-Off Before It Happened exponential-tech.ai/post/flo…

I estimate that just not doing what zephyr tells me to do ASAP has had negative EV to the tune of several net worths to date

Lol

BREAKING: Federal judge rules all 8 billion inhabitants of planet earth should be allowed to vote in American elections. - AP

Funny how it always starts with the insurers: remember AIG?

As I depart from Japan it is clear that, as evidenced by President Trump’s remarks yesterday, both countries will have a Golden Age under our two outstanding leaders: @POTUS @realDonaldTrump and @JPN_PMO @takaichi_sanae. I look forward to working with the Japanese Minister of Finance @satsukikatayama, and I am encouraged by her deep understanding of how Abenomics has moved from a purely reflationary policy to a program that must balance growth and inflationary concerns for the citizens of Japan. The Government’s willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility. The future is bright for both of our nations.

Goldman finds clear direct correlation between retail trading buy imbalance (which hit a record $3BN in Sept) and market returns