Physicist, Ergodicity Economics @LdnMathLab, @sfiscience. Book: ergodicityeconomics.com/an-i…
Joined November 2014
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Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
A pleasing amount of ergodicity economics here. @ProfSteveKeen taking the problem seriously.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas…
Funny how people have started talking about the K-shaped economy.
I didn't know this term but I guess I've been talking about it for close to 20 years now. If you want a theory of K-shaped economies, Ergodicity Economics is your friend.
Can you see the K?
Paul Samuelson:
"Menger 1934 is a modern classic that stands above all criticism."
Karl Popper:
"There is no authority beyond the reach of criticism to be found within the whole province of our knowledge."
[Menger 1934 was debunked in 2011]
This has been on our ‘nice to have’ to do list for several years. It can’t be that difficult, but it takes a bit of time coding.
Anyone?
@hulme_oliver is the simulation/game available online somewhere. Have learned a lot from Ole's LML simulation games in the past. I'd like to play around with your experiment to see what I can learn (about myself).
`And where do we sign up for this unmissable seminar,' I hear you ask.
Well -- right here:
ergodicityeconomics.com/even…
And to stay abreast of all things Ergodicity Economics, sign up to our infrequent newsletter here:
ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/…
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Are there algorithms, simple and fast enough to be used in the experiments, that do well on the gambling tasks?
The answer is a nuanced yes: @ozgur_simsek_'s and Gerd Gigerenzer's fast and frugal heuristics do well.
For the full story, come to Colm's EE seminar this week.
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Clearly, we don't consciously carry out EE-type calculations. Yet we behave as if we did. How our brain performs that trick is ongoing research at @DRCMR_MRI.
But while we wait for the brain data to be analyzed, @CPConnaughton has asked another question.
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Some years ago @hulme_oliver took my infamous coin toss and set up a lab experiment to see how real people play it. The results were astonishing - naive ergodicity economics predictions held very well.
I tried the experiment myself and was totally overloaded, cognitively.
“Now”?
If you live in London, how many years did it take you to meet someone who had a lounge?
(Source: BBC News)
Super use case for chatGPT and friends: if you've written something, upload it and ask for a devastating critique. It's just a bot speaking back to you, so no hard feelings, but it will obey if you ask for a brutal attack on your work.
If you’ve never taken an economics class, and you read ‘An introduction to ergodicity economics,’ you’ll have a hard time imagining that economic theory could be developed on different foundations.
If you then read a standard text, it will feel very complicated and antiquated.
With the Ergodicity Economics textbook out there, we're now contemplating a live teaching/AMA/reading group.
Here's the idea: read the textbook before you arrive, have a week or two where we go over it together, in a relaxed beautiful place.
What month would suit you?
LLMs are really very good at high-level conceptual descriptions that can be difficult to extract from formal writing.
Did some searching about my research interest in ergodicity economics and 'skin-in-the-game' type evolutionary dynamics; this is what @claudeai came up with. @ole_b_peters @nntaleb
