$NBIS — Catalysts explained:
Over the past seven months, we’ve witnessed
$NBIS go on a truly phenomenal run. Exactly seven months ago,
$NBIS traded at $21 per share. Today, it sits around $113 per share, marking a spectacular gain. This entire rally has been driven by a series of significant events that have steadily reshaped the company’s outlook. First, let’s take a detailed look back at what unfolded during this remarkable half-year journey.
The Journey So Far:
On April 3,
$NBIS was trading at $21 per share. Just two months later, the stock had nearly doubled. This move was primarily driven by a broad improvement in overall market dynamics. As we know, the S&P 500 had fallen about 20% in mid-April, but soon after, the market staged a strong rebound, and
$NBIS followed suit. I also believe that part of this move came from a valuation re-rating, as investors began to reassess the company’s potential.
A month later,
$NBIS surged another 25%, reaching nearly $50 per share. This increase coincided with the announcement of a $1 billion private placement of convertible notes. Once again, I think this move wasn’t solely about the financing. It was also triggered by another round of re-rating, as the market began to realise how cheap
$NBIS actually was.
After the rise from $20 to $50,
$NBIS remained relatively flat for about two months. Then, the company delivered a standout quarterly report that reignited momentum. They raised their ARR (annual recurring revenue) guidance, introduced ambitious MW/GW capacity goals, and hosted a bullish earnings call. The stock responded immediately, skyrocketing 20% on the day of the earnings release.
From there,
$NBIS traded sideways for another month, until something truly transformative happened. The company announced a $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft, one of the largest hyperscaler partnerships in the industry. This deal gave
$NBIS enormous credibility and long-term stability. On the day the deal was announced, the stock soared 45% higher compared to the day before.
Since that announcement, the stock has dipped below $90, climbed past $140, and is now trading around $130. Still, with so much momentum behind it, the key question remains: what could drive
$NBIS even higher from here?
To answer that, let’s go through all the major catalysts that could unfold over the coming months.
1) Capacity Expansion
Perhaps the most obvious catalyst is capacity expansion. When a company announces the construction of a new data center, it’s almost always a positive signal, it shows they’re moving aggressively to capture growing demand. I believe
$NBIS will announce multiple new data centers both this year and next.
During the last earnings call, Andrey Korolenko, the Chief Infrastructure and Product Officer, said:
“We are in advanced discussions for a couple of new greenfield sites, each one able to deliver hundreds of megawatts of power in 2026.”
Once either of these projects is officially announced, it could easily become a major driver of the share price, given the implications for future growth and revenue generation.
2) Strategic Deals and Partnerships
Another key catalyst lies in enterprise deals. We already knew
$NBIS had been constructing a massive 300+ MW data center in New Jersey. When the Microsoft partnership was revealed, it completely changed the investment narrative around the company. Here’s why that deal matters so much:
Credibility: When a giant like Microsoft commits nearly $20 billion to rent capacity from
$NBIS, it signals strong confidence in the company’s technology and reliability.
Stability: This partnership significantly de-risks the
$NBIS investment thesis. Even if demand temporarily slows, or if certain customers face latency or operational issues, the Microsoft deal guarantees a large, stable revenue stream for years.
Maximum Utilization: Nebius typically doesn’t operate at full utilization, but with Microsoft’s five-year contract, the New Jersey facility will run at or near 100% capacity.
Now that this partnership has been established, attention naturally turns to who might be next.
Here are several potential candidates who could sign similar agreements with
$NBIS:
• OpenAI – My top pick for the next major partner. OpenAI has massive infrastructure needs and is targeting 2 GW of capacity by the end of 2025, expanding that to 250 GW by 2033, implying a staggering 80% CAGR.
• Oracle – Another likely candidate, as they’re facing huge demand growth in their cloud division. Their backlog tripled in just one quarter.
• Anthropic – A strong contender as well, given its rapid scaling and appetite for compute resources.
If you think the chances of these deals are low, the company’s own leadership suggests otherwise. In the press release announcing the Microsoft partnership, the CEO stated:
“Nebius’ core AI cloud business, serving customers from AI startups to enterprises, is performing exceptionally well. In addition to our core business, we expect to secure significant long-term committed contracts with leading AI labs and big tech companies. I’m happy to announce the first of these contracts, and I believe there are more to come.”
Overall take - Bullish :)
3) The Clickhouse IPO
Another potential catalyst is the Clickhouse IPO.
$NBIS holds a 28% ownership stake in Clickhouse, which was last valued at $6.35 billion. The company’s CEO has publicly stated that an IPO is on the table.
ClickHouse is a high-speed, columnar database designed for efficient large-scale data analytics and is used by companies like Tesla, Anthropic, and Mercado Libre.
To understand what Clickhouse might be worth, let’s compare it with peers:
• Databricks: >$100B valuation | ARR (annualised recurring revenue): $4B | revenue growth: 50% | P/ARR: 25
• Snowflake: $82.5B valuation | ARR: $4B | revenue growth: 29% | P/ARR: 20.5
• Clickhouse: $6.35B valuation | ARR: $100M | revenue growth: 300% | P/ARR: 63.5
If Clickhouse increases revenue by 250% next year (a slight slowdown from its current 300% growth), ARR would reach $350 million. Assigning a more conservative but still premium multiple, say P/ARR of 45x, yields a valuation of $15.75 billion.
That would value $NBIS’s 28% stake at approximately $4.41 billion, giving it a stronger balance sheet and the financial flexibility to accelerate data center expansion even further.
4) Valuation Unlock from Subsidiaries
Beyond Clickhouse, several other subsidiaries could also unlock hidden value. If any of them conduct equity raises, investors would gain clearer visibility into what these assets are truly worth.
Here are some estimates based on current market trends:
• Avride: ~$5 billion valuation
• Toloka: ~$1 billion valuation
• Tripleten: ~$300 million valuation
Combined, these holdings could meaningfully increase the company’s overall enterprise value and attract more institutional attention.
5) Increased Analyst Coverage
Despite its rapid growth and now more than $30 billion market capitalization,
$NBIS remains under-covered by Wall Street analysts. Recently, firms like Goldman Sachs and Arete Research initiated coverage, but the total number of analysts following the stock is still relatively small.
As coverage expands, more investors will become aware of $NBIS’s growth story, which could lead to higher institutional inflows and valuation expansion.
6) Government Investment Potential
A more underappreciated but potentially game-changing catalyst could come from government partnerships or investments.
Europe, in particular, is lagging behind the US in AI and cloud infrastructure capabilities.
$NBIS, being one of the few large-scale cloud companies originating from Europe, is in a prime position to attract government support or joint initiatives; especially in areas related to sovereign AI infrastructure, green data centers, or national compute capacity.
A partnership of this nature would immediately strengthen the company’s credibility and stability within the European market.
7) The Next Earnings Report
Finally, one of the most immediate catalysts is the upcoming quarterly earnings report. The last earnings release was a major turning point, but what should investors watch for this time?
Here are the key points:
Another ARR guidance increase: This would signal continued business acceleration and growing customer demand.
Margin improvement: While not critical at this stage, any improvement would demonstrate scalability and operational efficiency.
Progress toward capacity goals: Updates on how the company plans to achieve its MW/GW targets would provide more clarity for long-term investors.
New deal or expansion announcements: Any confirmation of new hyperscaler or enterprise partnerships could ignite another rally.
Even if margins remain under pressure or decline this quarter due to expansion costs, it’s not a concern, the company is still in its early high-growth phase, and reinvestment is normal.
If you’d like to know what I’m currently doing with my
$NBIS position and want to receive future articles the moment they go live, check out the link to my SS in my bio.
Thanks for reading!