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Joined January 2018
This is Italy: - 7% tax for foreign pensioners - €200k flat tax on unlimited global income - 60 UNESCO World Heritage Sites (most in world) Now secretly one of Europe's strategic havens…ITALY IS BACK! Here are 8 reasons why Italy should be on your radar:
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South of Italy vs. North
ITALY IS BACK. And that’s why the South might be Europe’s most underrated geo-arbitrage play right now. Once seen as the continent’s problem child, Italy has become one of its strongest success stories. It’s the world’s 8th-largest economy and the EU’s 3rd by GDP. In 2024, it exported €612B of goods with a €46B surplus. Its dense web of SMEs drives industries from machinery to fashion, while 40 ports and 42 airports make it Europe’s prime gateway to the Mediterranean and Africa. Markets agree. The FTSE MIB rose 120% since 2020, double Europe’s average. Italian 10-year yields now sit below France’s; something unthinkable a few years ago. Debt is stabilizing near 127% of GDP, with the 2026 budget targeting a deficit below 3%. A new financial market law will simplify investment, reduce bureaucracy, and attract private capital. The black sheep of Europe is teaching the class how to grow up. Meanwhile, the South still offers Eastern Europe prices, a Mediterranean lifestyle, and unmatched incentives: 7% for retirees, ~10% for newcomers, and regimes for R&D as low as 2–3% tax rate for up to 13 years (check my previous posts for details). It’s Portugal ten years ago, but with Italy’s comeback tailwind. If leveraged properly, with the new reform working and perhaps a EU Inc. model I'd be bullish in establishing R&D-focused startups, with optimal tax incentives and lower cost of life.
Italy is back. For years, I dismissed my own country as a sinking ship. But I’ve discovered recently that Southern Italy is one of the best arbitrage opportunities in Europe. And arguably in the world. Here's everything you need to know to take advantage of this opportunity:
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This was literally unthinkable a few years ago.
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ITALY IS BACK. And that’s why the South might be Europe’s most underrated geo-arbitrage play right now. Once seen as the continent’s problem child, Italy has become one of its strongest success stories. It’s the world’s 8th-largest economy and the EU’s 3rd by GDP. In 2024, it exported €612B of goods with a €46B surplus. Its dense web of SMEs drives industries from machinery to fashion, while 40 ports and 42 airports make it Europe’s prime gateway to the Mediterranean and Africa. Markets agree. The FTSE MIB rose 120% since 2020, double Europe’s average. Italian 10-year yields now sit below France’s; something unthinkable a few years ago. Debt is stabilizing near 127% of GDP, with the 2026 budget targeting a deficit below 3%. A new financial market law will simplify investment, reduce bureaucracy, and attract private capital. The black sheep of Europe is teaching the class how to grow up. Meanwhile, the South still offers Eastern Europe prices, a Mediterranean lifestyle, and unmatched incentives: 7% for retirees, ~10% for newcomers, and regimes for R&D as low as 2–3% tax rate for up to 13 years (check my previous posts for details). It’s Portugal ten years ago, but with Italy’s comeback tailwind. If leveraged properly, with the new reform working and perhaps a EU Inc. model I'd be bullish in establishing R&D-focused startups, with optimal tax incentives and lower cost of life.
Portugal Visas: Today I’m interviewing Filipe Eusébio, a leading migration lawyer who is handling over 1,000 visa cases. We’ll cover everything about visas, Golden Visas, and what’s next for Portugal. I’ll make sure to touch on the key points, but drop your most important questions below. I will try to address all of them. The full interview will be out early next week.
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In the UK, the top 10% pay 60% of all income tax (£172B). A strong middle class needs high earners. And high earners mean having millionaires and billionaires.
The rise and fall of London: - Once the epicentre of global finance - Now a stagnating city riddled with challenges - Mass exodus of high net worth individuals The reasons for this decline are very complex. Here's a breakdown what's been happening there and why🧵:
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Over 140,000 millionaires are expected to relocate this year, and while most eyes are on Dubai or Singapore, Poland has emerged as Europe’s dark horse. Few saw this coming, I’d say. Its millionaire population has surged 82% in recent years, outpacing traditional hubs like Switzerland. I’m noticing the same trend just by talking with people around me, as more are settling in Warsaw or Kraków. Compared to Switzerland, they tell me this: Poland offers stability, affordability, and a long-term sense of security in a region once seen as volatile. Add to that the €70,000 flat tax covering all foreign income (from crypto to dividends) and it’s easy to see why it’s drawing interest. And almost nobody talks about this tax regime. According to Henley’s 2025 report, Poland isn’t yet top 10 by inflows, but it’s among the fastest-rising; a trend that 10 or even 20 years ago nobody would have predicted. If you’re based there, I’d love to hear your take. What are the real pros and cons?
In Switzerland, 1 in every 7 adults is a millionaire, which accounts for 14.9% of the adult population. This is twice the ratio in the United States, where about 1 in 14 adults (around 7-8.8%) is a millionaire. This statistic refers to net assets excluding the value of the primary residence.
Portugal Golden Visa: The President hasn’t yet decided, but even in the worst case, the Golden Visa remains a five-year journey. After that, investors can apply for permanent residence (PR) instead. The PR card lasts another five years, requires no physical stay, and doesn’t oblige investors to maintain their investment. In practice, the path to citizenship stays open, only extended, even in the worst-case scenario. Between years 5 and 10, no voting rights, and you can withdraw your investment after year 5. We still hope the President or Constitutional Court introduces a grandfathering clause to protect current applicants. But even without it, after five years you can hold PR, remove your investment, and still apply for citizenship later. Parliament should have included grandfathering, as all constitutional experts agreed. This isn’t to minimize the problem (far from it) but to clarify that, even pending judicial remedies, a clear legal path remains open. There are nuances, and I’ll unpack them in the coming weeks. I’m posting this because nobody is talking about this PR path, and it’s important to acknowledge its existence. That said, I believe that full protection sooner or later will be fully granted.
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Everyone is moving to the UAE, but not always where you think. I met a friend who lived in Dubai for 14 years and recently moved to Abu Dhabi. He said it’s a growing trend, especially among British expats. Why? The key difference is demographic. Dubai is 92% expats, only 8% locals. Abu Dhabi has around 19% Emiratis (roughly 550K citizens), and that balance changes everything. Abu Dhabi feels more local and calm. Homes are bigger, prices lower. It may feel slow if you love Dubai’s nightlife, but for families, it’s ideal. He also noted that in Abu Dhabi, nobody ever asks for a discount on an invoice (he’s a lawyer), unlike in Dubai. If I had to move back, I’d consider Abu Dhabi. But I’d still miss that pocket near Kite Beach, minutes from downtown, yet right by the sea. Have you lived in either city? Curious to hear your experience.
Portugal’s immigration agency is sitting on 55K pending Golden Visa applications. Each investor already paid €500–600 in fees; that’s €27.5M collected for services not yet rendered. Once approved, each case generates over €6K in title fees, i.e. about €300M in projected revenue. That is ≈ the size of Portugal’s entire 2025 budget for state reform (€350M+). Since 2012, the program has brought in €600M per year in investment. If legal certainty isn’t restored and the market collapses, Portugal could lose €3B by 2030, plus indirect tax revenue. If even half of these investors withdraw or sue, the financial and reputational damage would exceed the €300M in lost revenue. If the State were a company, such mismanagement would be unthinkable; yet taxpayers may end up paying twice for the same failure. Who benefits here?
Portugal update (more a personal reflection). Last night, our first five investors received biometric summons for early 2026, only 11-15 months after investing. That’s faster than our estimate of 18 months. After so many issues, seeing those emails felt good. Some promises are still being kept. This led me to a reflection. This program had/has everything to keep growing. More broadly, Portugal had/has everything to position itself as a leading tech hub. Unfortunately, bad policies risk killing twice. A past law allowed anyone to enter on a 90-day visa, stay indefinitely, and later regularize by "expressing interest". The result: over 400.000 residence permit processes pending by early 2025. This means nearly 5% of Portugal’s population, crazily enough. If you were Portuguese, you’d probably support stricter rules. I would too. But not all residents are equal. Those who add value through skill, intellect, or capital aren’t the same as those who extract it or break the law. A nation should protect the former and their trust. Today, Portugal risks confusing the two. In trying to fix one mistake, it may break faith with those who came to build and invest lawfully under its own rules. Programs like IFICI and the Golden Visa were designed to attract talent and €500M+ yearly. It worked, until indecision began undoing their success. My hope is that the Constitutional Court intervenes before the market does. Because once trust disappears, it rarely returns, and the shockwaves could extend far beyond golden visas, undermining Portugal’s tech ambitions and driving away the very innovators it sought to attract.
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Thank you for reading! For more posts and insights on the future of global citizenship, follow @thealepalombo And repost this to share with your audience:
Live in Italy, Shop in France, Network in Monaco. This is “the three-country arbitrage” nobody's talking about. I've been mapping Italian relocation strategies for months but completely missed this until my friend @TimurNegru pointed it out. Here's everything you need to know:
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P.S. If you're considering moving to Europe... I created a guide for The Best Paths to European Citizenship in 2025. If you'd like it, subscribe here and you'll get it sent straight to your inbox! palombo.substack.com/
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If you're living in the Ligurian border area (Sanremo, Bordighera, Ventimiglia, Ospedaletti), I'm genuinely curious about your experience. Does the three-country setup work in practice? What's winter like? Social dynamics? Comment and let me know!
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The question becomes: are you willing to do that work to access the opportunity? And honestly, another question: does the lived experience match what makes sense on paper? Because those can be very different things. Transparently, that is an unknown for this specific region. Though I can say from personal experience through my parents, it works. Meal in a small village: €25 per person.
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So who could this work for? You earn remotely with location flexibility. You want Italian tax treatment but value proximity to France and Monaco. You're comfortable in smaller coastal towns. You think in years and decades, not quarters.
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Most people think "Italian coast" and picture Amalfi or Portofino. They don't even know Sanremo exists. All this complexity creates a filter. Which keeps prices lower. But has also created the opportunity for people willing to do the work.
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Portugal made relocation relatively simple. One program. Clear process. Minimal friction. Prices adjusted to reflect that accessibility. Italy makes you work for it. Multiple tax regimes with different requirements. Bureaucratic navigation necessary. And this leads to lack of awareness – this included myself till recently.
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The question I keep coming back to is this: Why are these Italian coastal regions still priced like they haven't discovered global markets while Lisbon went up 8x in a decade? The quality is there. The climate works. The infrastructure exists. The tax regimes are genuinely favorable. I think it comes down to complexity.
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