Virginia Governor Race : Winsome Earle-Sears (R) vs Abigail Spanberger (D) Our Commonsense AI model is predicting a very close race that could flip in either direction. While Abigail Spanberger had an initial lead, it is shrinking fast as Winsome Earle-Sears picks up late stage momentum. Winning Probabilities Winsome Earle-Sears (50%) Abigail Spanberger (50%) We are witnessing the same trend in the VA District 27 House Delegate race that we are tracking where Junaid Khan is narrowing the lead against Atoosa Reaser with both sides have similar odds of winning.