Have been having a lot of discussions with teams of every size the last few days regarding x402 and the agentic economy. Here are the biggest takeaways that I think are very relevant (blog soon):
TL;DR - Inefficient unit economics will stunt growth outside of memecoins (temporarily), interest in composability is huge but lack of resources is limiting, discovery is key and there is massive opportunities for a bunch of teams to experiment here
1. A composable agentic economy breaks with the current cost structure. It's not feasible to charge $0.01 or $0.001 for most services if an agent needs to be making hundreds or thousands of calls per "workflow" or "lifecycle".
- Current default/avg. cost per action is $0.01
- Gas Fee is ~$0.000853 (per Basescan as of 1:30 PM) which is 215% increase compared to the fees paid via traditional payment processors charging ~2.7%, while on Solana I'm seeing fees of $0.001546 pulled from
@PayAINetwork facilitator
If an agent or agent swarm needs to consistently search, manipulate data, run sentiment analysis, store and access context, etc and does so 100 times at $0.01 that is $1.
Is it possible that people will pay $1+ for hundreds of composable resources and agents to be consumed in a workflow? Yes. Is it realistic? I am not certain.
Where it gets even more interesting is the facilitator. Most of them are running for free today, but some like
@thirdweb and (I think)
@mrdn_finance are charging fees.
Assume 0.3% or 30 basis points (BPS), on $0.01 is $0.00003 which means if the gas fee is $0.00085+ the facilitator is losing $0.00082 per transaction.
The cost part is interesting but I think there are arguments to be made about where teams actually make money. I.e if Coinbase makes more money from the Sequencer, then facilitator losses are irrelevant or if ThirdWeb makes money from their wallet or API products from that same dev that outpace the cost of settlement I think sure this may be a moot point BUT I don't think it's the case at scale.
2. The lack of resources I think comes from a misconception on agentic adoption. As with anything, it is easier to bring improvement to an existing customer than try to get a new one. This is why billion and trillion dollar companies spend so much time on catering to enterprises (in B2B) that are already using them.
I think a specific area of the market that is almost 100% untapped in regards to x402 is agentic coding. Sure there are a couple of basic "launchpad tools" that do some things here but reality is that the moat that
@cursor_ai, Codex by
@OpenAI ,
@claudeai ,
@FactoryAI , etc have made around agentic coding is incredible.
The problem? I can't afford to pay for all the tools. I would love to enhance every part of my workflow but it's too expensive. I cannot pay $50-100+ per month per seat/product and have dozens of products financially.
The solution? x402 + invisible wallets + stablecoins + basic guardrails. The
@CoinbaseDev MCP could probably work really well here as a cornerstone piece but the idea is simple (I don't claim execution here is easy). We need to bring the AI SaaS tools to x402 (community effort). Then build the pipeline to make apps like
@linear make it easy to set guardrails, budgets, etc.
My belief is that people will never want to deal with micro-finances. The above is also relevant because it allows us to set higher level budgets (optional granular limits) that then trickle down to the agentic workflows to write PRDs, write code, do code reviews, etc.
3. Discover is KEY. Have been thinking about this a lot and believe that kind of like how everyone is building a facilitator, the next "big" thing is going to be everyone pivoting to discovery. Sure embeddings, subgraphs, etc are all good and great but I think the key is that making agents composable is really hard and the cost of context is a limiting factory.
Those building discovery tools will take an early lead who actually guide the composability in my opinion. Want to do X? Similar to how we can do vector search on embeddings; I think we will have a similar flow where discovery systems will essentially pre-sort filter based on need.
Uncertain whether this will be standardized as an extension to x402 or another open protocol but the idea that an agent wants to accomplish X means that it then needs to go through a series of steps, inference, transformation, etc.
The simplest solution? Discovery Agents.
They have access to their own internal or public directory of resources and agents and specialize in creating agentic step-by-step plans dynamically so that general purpose agents i.e ChatGPT, Claude, etc can make a series of calls to get estimates and proposed flows and not waste context or payments based on something they don't know yet.
A lot of this is my raw thoughts and I'll be refining via a blog over the next few days. If you have ideas and want to collaborate on the above just DM me!