Bessent: "The economy is getting worse and worse. We had a fantastic economy under President Trump the last 2 quarters, and now there are estimates that growth this quarter could be cut by as much as half."

THE WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER JUST COLLAPSED November 6, 2025: SOFR crashed to 3.92%. The lowest level in two years. The benchmark that controls $397 trillion in global contracts just signaled something catastrophic. This is not a rate cut. This is a liquidity flood. THE NUMBER THAT MOVES EVERYTHING: SOFR replaced LIBOR in 2023 as the foundation beneath derivatives, corporate loans, adjustable mortgages, and securities worth more than 15 times global GDP. When SOFR moves, $397 trillion in financial contracts reprice simultaneously. It just fell from 4.22% on October 31 to 3.92% in six days. A 30 basis point nosedive that saves borrowers $50 billion annually but screams one word: panic!! WHAT THE FED IS NOT SAYING: The Federal Reserve cut rates 150 basis points year to date. Excess reserves are flooding repo markets. Overnight borrowing costs for the entire financial system collapsed to levels not seen since September 2023, when recession fears first surfaced. Translation: The Fed sees something breaking and is throwing liquidity at it before the fractures become visible. THE MECHANISM OF CONTAGION: Lower SOFR slashes bank funding costs by 10 to 30 basis points immediately. Corporate loan rates drop 15 basis points. Adjustable rate mortgages reset 20 basis points lower, cutting monthly payments by $200 average. Credit expands 2 to 5 percent. Lending accelerates. Asset prices inflate. But here is what they are not telling you: sub-4% SOFR has preceded every major asset bubble since 2008. Cheap money does not fix broken growth. It masks it. THE GLOBAL SPILLOVER: Cheaper dollar funding triggers $10 billion plus in emerging market carry trade inflows. Currency volatility spikes. Foreign central banks hoard dollars. The cycle that destroyed Argentina, Turkey, and Sri Lanka restarts. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: If Q4 GDP misses expectations or inflation spikes above 3.5%, SOFR reverses violently. Repo market seizures return. The 2019 overnight funding crisis replays at scale. If the Fed holds course, credit bubbles inflate until something pops. Corporate debt. Commercial real estate. Equity multiples at 25x earnings. THE TRUTH BURIED IN THE DATA: SOFR is not just a rate. It is the early warning system for systemic stress. When the world’s most important number collapses this fast, it means central banks are terrified. They are easing into a recession they cannot admit is coming. Hold duration. Hedge via SOFR futures. Watch repo volumes like a seismograph. The tremors started. The quake is next.

Thanks for raising this @BretWeinstein on @joerogan Most people do not understand the bait and switch first described by @RetsefL and @joshg99

i'm honestly not sure what to make of this new set of talking points. they seem disconnected from reality. it feels like panic as the economy ex-AI is now obviously in distress. spamming another ~$300bn round of covid checks will just set off another sugar high of inflation. so will 50 year mortgages. so will tariffs. (as they did in 2016) manufacturing jobs have been decreasing for 2 years and the more rapid decrease since late year has not abated. trade wars do not create jobs. and there is a zero percent chance we start paying down debt. we're running structural deficits of $1.5-$2 trillion a year and this cannot be fixed without massive reform to entitlements because entitlements and interest costs on the debt alone are over $5 trillion and consume functionally all tax receipts before a dollar of discretionary spending is paid. i'm honestly struggling to see what trump is playing at here. it feels like populist pandering calculated to set his economic credibility on fire. does any serious human think the US federal debt level will be lower when trump leaves office than it is today? because i'll take the other side of that bet.

They’re terrified to release the Econ data

"You know Fed will be buying AI hyperscaler bonds when they next do QE." - Michael Hartnett, BofA

Perusing X it looks like the 50 year mortgage idea is going over like a lead balloon. 🤣😂 It’s also a signal that they know a housing crisis is brewing and the subsequent bank collateral issues as prices roll. It’s a weak attempt at making monthly payments lower marginally to induce buyers into market and prop up prices in the short term kicking the can down the road for the banks. Market forces however, eventually overwhelm this extend and pretend. Good try though 🤣

Obese people get taxpayer-funded Ozempic while the vaccine injured are still waiting for just compensation which tells you who is really in charge (and it ain't MAHA).

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump appears to announce his intention to normalize 50 YEAR MORTGAGES, to make it easier for young people to buy a home via lower monthly payments He cites FDR as when the 30-year mortgage started to spread nationwide 👀

🚨Update on J6 Pipe Bomber Report🚨 After an abundance of counsel from trusted parties within and outside the government, we've hit the pause button so those interested parties can have some more time to look at the J6 pipe bomber evidence. There are things they need to do internally. This is a real story. When it breaks, it's going to be a HUGE story. There are a lot of moving parts, but we need to give them time to do what they need to do, and I know everyone is waiting. Believe me. Tensions are running high. There have been a lot of sleepless nights the last two weeks. But this is a game-changer, and we don't want to do anything to jeopardize that right now. I was up at 3:30 am preparing the video clips for the release on this morning’s Glenn Beck Program. Contrary to what so many X complainers will say, this wasn’t a hype stunt for views and clicks. And no, the government didn’t silence us. Glenn and I both were pretty amped up to put it all out this morning. And we were both very disappointed when the decision to postpone was made. The government’s investigation into the J6 pipe bombs was going nowhere just two weeks ago. Today I can tell you that has all changed. A bunch of people got pretty spun up yesterday. Hang tight. It’s all coming.