Excited to be supporting this launch 🟢🟢🟢

7 deadly sins of tokenomics ↓ 1️⃣ Overinflated FDV at TGE • Launching at a FDV far above comparable peers. • Creates immediate downside risk, discourages organic entry. • Often paired with insider-friendly rounds that priced cheaply before. ☠️ Result: retail exit liquidity, weak secondary market performance. 2️⃣ Low-Float Trap • Tiny circulating supply at TGE (<5%) with cliffs and steep unlocks. • Creates artificial scarcity → pumps early, but 100–200%+ yearly inflation crushes price once unlocks start. ☠️ Result: unsustainable hype cycle, sharp post-unlock crashes. 3️⃣ Insider-Dominated Allocations • Excessive token share to VCs, team, and advisors (e.g., >60%), with weak or short lockups. • Misaligned with community, little incentive for organic holders. ☠️ Result: extraction over alignment, perpetual sell pressure. 4️⃣ Utility Theater (Fake Demand Drivers) • Tokens used only for governance or inflationary staking without real sinks. • “Stake-to-earn” emissions that dilute holders instead of driving usage. ☠️ Result: speculative churn, no structural demand as protocol scales. 5️⃣ Emissions Without Sinks • High incentives to attract liquidity but no mechanisms to recycle or burn supply (e.g., ve-locks, fee burns, buybacks). • Rewards mercenary farmers who dump immediately. ☠️ Result: TVL mercenaries → liquidity death spiral when rewards fade. 6️⃣ Liquidity Starvation • No serious market-making, shallow DEX pools, or lack of tier-1 CEX listings. • Even if fundamentals are solid, tokens can’t be bought/sold at scale. ☠️ Result: high slippage, low participation, volatility spiral. 7️⃣ Narrative Disconnection • Tokenomics not aligned with product model or ecosystem narrative. • Example: consumer app token with high inflation but no growth flywheel, or DeFi token without value capture. ☠️ Result: no narrative-product-token coherence → token becomes irrelevant.

Continuing this thesis on too rushed TGEs: PHASE 1 (We're here): Launch frenzy • Multiple weekly launches continue • Valuations remain inflated • Liquidity fragmentation accelerates PHASE 2 (Q4 2025): Reality check • Failed projects begin significant corrections • Unlock pressure creates selling waves • Market begins quality differentiation PHASE 3 (2026): Consolidation • Only fundamentally strong projects survive • Launch velocity normalizes • Sustainable valuations emerge Likely survivors: • Projects with real revenue streams • Tokens with genuine utility requirements • Teams with long-term vision and execution • Protocols with network effects Happy to bet that the market will follow exactly this pattern. As always.

Whatever metrics you choose for your points / airdrop program, farmers will optimize for them. Volume thresholds = wash trading paradise Time-based requirements = bot coordination And then, 90% of airdrop recipients will dump immediately. Stop hallucinating.

To clarify: @base has achieved $15B+ TVL and 1M+ daily active users without token incentives, proving GENUINE product-market fit. $BASE token launch: > amplify this success through aligned incentives OR > backfire. Risks I see ↓ 1️⃣ The organic growth disruption Base's authentic user adoption has been its key differentiator. Users aren't farming airdrops, they're actually using apps on Base. Once token is announced: • Airdrop farmers flood the network with extractive behavior • App quality degrades as developers focus on token incentives over user experience • Mercenary capital replaces organic community building Historical Precedent: Look at Optimism's $OP launch – initial excitement followed by sustained sell pressure and questions about whether token incentives actually improved the user experience or just attracted farmers. 2️⃣ Regulatory & legal complications The @coinbase exposure: • SEC scrutiny intensifies — Base token could be classified as a security • Coinbase stock impact if Base token faces regulatory challenges • International compliance issues in jurisdictions where token launches are restricted • Launching a token during peak crypto regulatory uncertainty in the US could trigger investigations, enforcement actions, or classification as an unregistered security. This could damage both Base and Coinbase at a critical growth phase. 3️⃣ Tokenomics & distribution challenges The allocation dilemma: • How much to Coinbase? Too much = centralization concerns, too little = misaligned incentives • Retroactive vs. prospective rewards: early users vs. future growth • Inflation schedule: too aggressive = sell pressure, too conservative = insufficient incentives • Utility design: governance-only tokens often struggle with value accrual ➕ The Precedent Problem: Most L2 tokens have underperformed post-launch: • $ARB: Down 60% from highs despite strong fundamentals • $OP: Persistent sell pressure from ecosystem incentives • $MATIC: Struggling with value accrual despite adoption I agree if you disagree.

Fun fact from a person running a marketing agency: 90% of the accounts on this list are botted + low in smart followers. Yet they charge $$$. Dear projects, pls stop paying botted accounts. Use Kaito / Cookie / Moni for validation.

On a serious note, airdrops have been the greatest charity auction in the history of humanity. Currently, the median household income worldwide is ~$9,733 USD per year. Less than $10K. Let that sink in.

Just discovered that @DefiLlama is now paid (ᗒᗣᗕ) End of a great epoch where data was for everyone.

pew pew 🧵 meet the bloggers & X accounts you need on your follow radar - alpha, breakdowns, and cosmic clarity await

Ever look at a token distribution chart and think: “Cool graph, no clue what I’m looking at”? That’s where @bubblemaps comes in It turns wallet spaghetti into detective - level insights. Let’s dive🫧

damn i was today years old when i found out @CoinMarketCap added AI picked @WalrusProtocol $WAL - < 10s later: full report w/ 40+ sources, twitter mentions + news lowkey a game-changer for morning news screening if you’ve been sleeping on it (like I do)

POV: you are KOL Not every collab deserves a ‘yes.’ Some don’t even deserve oxygen. DMs? A graveyard of weird proposals So instead of ghosting, here are polite-but-toxic ways to say ‘no’ if you are too shy🧵

Okie okie Hear me out & prove me wrong 👇

The real state of InfoFi marketing. Case: @JoinSapien on @KaitoAI. Reward: $40K / week 7d leaderboard: 29 yappers. Just 3 have more than 1K smart followers. Is it worth $40K? My research on capital efficiency ↓

The biggest VC rounds: AI in focus. Watchlist ↓ 1. Infrastructure-first (Deep Tech Plays) These projects are building rails, compute layers, privacy-preserving tooling, or data marketplaces. They aim to become part of the protocol stack, not the app layer. Examples: • @nillionaire98 (privacy-preserving computation) • @oceanprotocol (data liquidity layer) • @SentientAGI (decentralized AI compute) • @PhalaNetwork (confidential smart contracts & compute) These are high-capex, high-mojo bets often with long time horizons and complex regulatory overlays. 2. Agent-first (Consumer UX plays) This group is focused on making AI usable in Web3 contexts: identity, wallets, task automation, even social UX. Examples: • @billions_ntwk (human verification layer) • @Gaianet_AI / @openmind_agi (AI agents, DeFi interfaces) • @SaharaLabsAI (on-chain assistants & chat UX) • @TheoriqAI (autonomous trading + treasury AI) They solve immediate UX bottlenecks and have faster feedback loops, hence quicker adoption and possibly faster token velocity. 3. Missing Middle Layer = Opportunity What’s not being funded: • Tooling for training on-chain • Model versioning and reproducibility layers • AI security (anti-sybil, adversarial defense) These gaps may define the next AI crypto cohort especially as inference becomes commoditized and the infra race saturates. Crypto found consensus. AI brings cognition. The frontier is what happens when both are native.