“It is not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves.” — Sir Edmund Hillary
Feb 4, 2021 · 4:30 AM UTC
Still no big deal because we already have options as you said several times..?
As we count down to the historic launch of Bitcoin ETF options in less than 12 hours, I wanted to share a few thoughts:
1- IBIT was approved for only 25,000 contracts as a position limit. At this level, the exercisable risk represents less than 0.5% of IBIT's outstanding shares. Even with a position limit of 400,000 options, the exercisable risk would have only reached 7% of the outstanding shares. IBIT should have qualified for 400,000 options. To put this into context, CME Bitcoin futures contracts have a 2,000-contract limit, which is equivalent to about 175,000 contracts for IBIT. Instead, we were given just 280 Bitcoin futures contracts. While I’m thrilled we’ve crossed the finish line—especially in 2024—it’s hard to ignore the lingering special treatment Bitcoin continues to receive. I long for the day when Bitcoin is no longer marked with an asterisk.
2- I have immense gratitude for the @CFTC, both for the speed with which they acted and for their lack of political maneuvering. It’s clear to me that CME Group would prefer Bitcoin to trade primarily as futures, positioning itself as the dominant market with launches like "BFFs." If the CFTC had been as politicized as the SEC, we might not have had a fair launch at all. Their willingness to cede authority for ETF options to the SEC, recognizing them as securities within the scope of the law, is commendable. It’s worth noting we wouldn’t have Bitcoin ETFs today without the futures market paving the way too.
3- Combining above 1 and 2, the final point I wanted to share was: we’re about to see multiple options contracts across multiple issuers, all tracking the same extremely liquid underlying asset, something that hasn't ever been seen before in the options world. The narrow 25,000-contract limit may create unusual market dynamics, with natural buyers and sellers interacting across different volatility surfaces. So if you believe IBIT’s options chain is likely going to be the “most institutional” and therefore the“least arbitrage-able,” I’d personally urge sophisticated retail traders to explore options from other issuers as well. There could be opportunities—glitches, if you will—on these contracts that work in your favor. It's crypto after all.
With that, I wish everyone good luck and godspeed. See you tomorrow at 9:30 AM! 🫡
Any chance you can reply to my NOSTR DM? I am unable to message you here because I am not blue checked. But I have a real Bitcoin case and desperately need advice. I tried to DIY it but amateur hour is over lol. Thanks 🙏
My favorite mountaineering poem:
Rene Daumal
One cannot stay on the summit forever -
One has to come down again.
So why bother in the first place? Just this.
What is above knows what is below -
But what is below does not know what is above
One climb, one sees-
One descends and sees no longer
But one has seen!
There is an art of conducting one's self in
The lower regions by the memory of
What one saw higher up.
When one can no longer see,
One does at least still know.
