BREAKING: US Secretary of Transportation Duffy says the FAA may be forced to cancel 20% of flights if the government shutdown continues. That's a total of ~9,000 flights PER DAY.

FEAR & GREED INDEX FALLS TO 14, LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2025. “Extreme Fear” with the S&P 500 up +38% since April 7th. Textbook bull market activity.

The US manufacturing sector recession continues: The ISM Manufacturing PMI index decreased -0.4 points in October, to 48.7, its lowest since July. This marks the 8th consecutive monthly contraction. New orders came in at 49.4 and remained in contraction territory for the 8th month out of the last 9. The employment index came in at 46.0, posting its 9th consecutive monthly contraction. Meanwhile, prices paid fell -3.9 points, to 58.0, posting its 4th straight monthly decline and suggesting weakening demand is easing cost pressures. US manufacturing needs help.

BREAKING: US consumer sentiment falls to its 2nd lowest level on record. Consumer sentiment is now below the 2008 low.

BREAKING: Nvidia's, $NVDA, losses accelerate to -5% on the day, now down -16% since Monday's high. That marks a drop of -$800 BILLION since Monday.

The Nvidia and Jensen Huang's China comment "situation" is very strange: On Tuesday, Jensen Huang blatantly said China “is going to win the AI race” against the US unless things change. This led to 3-day decline of -$500 billion in Nvidia's market cap. Jensen Huang has never explicitly stated this in the past. Later than night, Jensen Huang released a statement saying China is "nanoseconds behind" the US on AI. Less than 24 hours later, headlines emerged that the US is set to announce a ban on sales of Nvidia's scaled-down AI chips to China. Just one week prior to all of this, President Trump met with Jensen Huang before his meeting with China's President Xi. What happened behind closed doors?

BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls to its lowest level since October 22nd as the government shutdown enters day number 38. The S&P 500 has now erased -$1.8 trillion this week.

Multiple large cap technology stocks are now down over 10% on the week. Nvidia has erased -$550 billion of market cap as trade uncertainty returns. We must end the shutdown and restore stability. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

This week, volatility has returned as uncertainty continues to grow. The macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable. Want to receive our premium analysis? Subscribe to access our premium analysis below: thekobeissiletter.com/subscr…

Meanwhile, total US debt is rising by an average of +$17 billion PER DAY during the shutdown. Yesterday ALONE, US debt surged +$45 billion in a single day. We are officially less than 5% away from hitting a record $40 trillion in US debt. Deficit spending is out of control.

The stock market is beginning to react. Currently the S&P 500 is on track to fall -3% this week. This marks a -$1.7 trillion drawdown in market cap as concerns over the shutdown are growing. Markets are pricing-in a prolonged disruption of commerce in the US.

The US government shutdown is now expected to last through November 18th. This has moved up from the December 1st expectations seen at the beginning of this week. However, multiple attempts to reopen the government have failed. We believe November 18th is optimistic.

The question becomes, will the government shutdown last until Thanksgiving? If so, as many as 30% of the ~5.8 million travelers could be impacted by delays and cancellations. This could impact up to ~2 million travelers with the total nearing 10 million by December 1st.

On top of this, SNAP benefits are being delayed. SNAP is the largest federal food assistance program in the US. Currently, 42 million Americans are still waiting on aid from the federal government. The average monthly benefit is ~$250 per person for a total of $100B/year.

As the shutdown drags on, the economic impact is compounding. Moody's estimates that the shutdown is now costing the US $30 billion PER WEEK. If the shutdown lasts until the end of this month, the total cost could exceed $250 billion. Never in history has this happened.

Below is a map of the 40 airports impacted. More than 700 US flights were canceled as of 9 AM ET today. The FAA announced that 10% of flights may be canceled until the end of the shutdown. So far, 4 MILLION travelers have been impacted by cancellations and delays.

Today, the US government shutdown officially enters day 38. This marks the longest shutdown in US history and nearly 5 TIMES the average. But, today also marks the first day that the shutdown has gone "mainstream." The FAA has announced flight cancellations beginning today.

The US government shutdown is expanding: Today, the FAA officially began cutting 700 flights PER DAY across 40 airports. Airports are now facing a shortage of 3,500 air traffic controllers with 4+ MILLION passengers impacted. What happens next? Let us explain.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Nancy Pelosi "illegally made a fortune in the stock market" and "ripped off the American public."

BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed fell -6.4% YoY in the week ending October 31st, now at the lowest level since February 2021. Postings have now declined -36.9% since the April 2022 peak. The number of available vacancies is now only +1.7% above pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020. Furthermore, new job postings are just +4.1% above those levels. This signals further deterioration ahead in BLS job openings data, which has been delayed due to the government shutdown. Labor market weakness is spreading.