The Great Reset: Multipolarity in Bi-polarity
Today is a day worth noting in the calendar. Ever since 2015-16 we have been talking about a New Global Order & a Global Reset after the coming of President Donald Trump in 2017 & his America First slogan.
Today that reset is underway as as speak. America and China are locked in high stakes battle over control of resources and technologies. Both sides played poker making their moves from Tariffs to Freights to Soybeans to Rare Earths to Tech Controls.
And just when you thought it would blow up the global economy both sides blinked on a ceasefire. America is dialing back Fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10% & tech regulations in return for which China is lifting soybeans & easing supply Rare Earths supply to the United States and put it off by one year.
While everyone is talking about who blinked first or what it means. The larger message is that first time after 1945 & more so after the fall of the Soviet Union, America has grudgingly acceded to China as a peer competitor accepting its rise as global power.
The era of Unipolarity is over and the glass ceiling of sole superpower has been cracked. This is the beginning of the Cold War 2.0 as we foresaw in
#TheNewGlobalOrder (2016) &
#TheGreatReset (2022).
The process of restructuring of global supply chains has just begun. 'Two Systems Two Supply Chains', is how its going to be in the future. But this Cold War 2.0 will be unlike Cold War 1.0, as this time many powers like India, Turkey, GCC states will deal with both systems for which they will have to accommodate both poles.
This is where a Multi-Polar world order starts to form and space opens up for the countries like India who don't want to be tied to be either bloc. Geo Politics never happens in black or white, many players operate in Gray Zones.
The Bottom line is as the world order resets and the Great Power competition heats up between the USA & China, alliances will change and supply chains will restructure. These are tumultuous times for the world & global economy at large. We are witnessing epoch making events that will define not only supply chains or global economy but rather the fate of humanity at large.