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5/ A sustained break higher in $BTC likely hinges on ETF flows turning positive and renewed conviction in risk assets.

4/ Still, policy uncertainty keeps the dollar firm. The Fed’s October cut was tempered by hawkish dissents, and markets now price roughly 60–65% odds of another move in December. The longer the blackout persists, the likelier the Fed pauses, maintaining tight credit conditions.

3/ Despite the noise, the macro backdrop remains broadly constructive. With the government shutdown delaying official data, investors are leaning on private indicators that continue to show steady growth, from GDP revisions to jobless claims near 218k.

2/ The move was compounded by over $1B in long liquidations and dealer hedging around key $100k strikes, intensifying volatility before dip buyers stepped in. For now, $100k remains the psychological line in the sand, any stabilization in ETF flows could swiftly shift sentiment back toward the upside.

Asia Colour - 5 Nov 25 1/ $BTC led the global risk-off move overnight, sliding to test the critical $100,000 support level as a firmer dollar and lingering Fed uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment. Four straight days of ~$1.3B in U.S. spot ETF outflows have flipped one of 2025’s strongest tailwinds into a near-term headwind.

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5/ The question now, is this consolidation the start of another crypto winter, or just a reset before the next leg higher? For now, OGs are taking profit while institutions quietly keep building.

4/ Roughly 405k $BTC in legacy supply has been absorbed over the past month without breaching 100k. Even with slower accumulation from @Strategy , @Metaplanet_JP , and small treasuries, spot remains well supported.

3/ Volatility has ticked higher, but skew still leans toward puts. Leverage remains clean after the 10 Oct flush, with perpetual OI subdued and funding flat, showing little fear of a sharp breakdown.

2/ $BTC outflows from OG wallets to Kraken and others have persisted since October, likely behind the first red month since 2018. The selloff remains idiosyncratic, with no clear macro trigger as equities outperform under easing policy.

Asia Colour - 3 Nov 25 1/ $BTC began November on shaky footing, sliding from 110k to 107k during Asia hours. Its downtrend extends as legacy holders continued moving coins to exchanges.

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5/ Policy certainty, trade clarity, and liquidity repair remain key drivers heading into November. The macro fog persists. For now, the Fed, markets, and crypto all move without a compass.

4/ In crypto, enthusiasm remains muted. The 10 Oct flash crash left liquidity fragile, with $BTC and $ETH drifting in narrow ranges. Digital Asset Treasuries trading below 1 MNAV could force buybacks, adding more supply to thin markets.

3/ AI remains the heartbeat of equity optimism. From chipmakers to data centers, the OpenAI effect continues to ripple across sectors. The market’s self-reinforcing AI loop recalls the Dotcom bubble but irrationality can last longer than solvency.

2/ Trade tensions persist. The U.S.–China tariff dynamic remains in flux, centred on national security concerns over rare earths, the lifeblood of AI and the 21st-century tech race. Still, Trump–Xi ties appear to have steadied ahead of this week’s meeting.

Asia Colour - 29 Oct 25 1/ The Fed meets tonight but with the U.S. government shutdown halting key data, Powell faces the rare challenge of flying blind. A 25bp cut is expected, but without new inflation or labour prints, forward guidance is off the table.

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5/ $BTC and $ETH skews have normalized, but a true bull turn needs $BTC above 116k. Until then, crypto stays range-bound amid high-stakes macro catalysts.