“But muh, hurricanes are becoming stronger.”
No, they actually aren’t.
Given I am a meteorologist, I think I would know a thing or two about this.
The real-world data show that:
1️⃣ Major hurricane (MH)—those that reach category three on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale—counts have not increased since 1990, a period with consistent observational data thanks to the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU) on satellites. Data from the 1980s and prior have some quality issues.
If hurricanes were actually becoming stronger, we would be seeing more of them reaching major hurricanes status. Some organizations, such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), argue that a greater proportion of hurricanes now reach major hurricane status, but that framing is misleading because it suggests major hurricanes are increasing in occurrence, when absolute numbers show that to be false.
The reality is that the proportional rise is due to a faster decrease in Cat. 1-5 fixes due to fewer weaker hurricanes forming, but the number of Cat. 3-5 hurricanes have not decreased at the same rate because they are rarer overall (Jewson & Lewis, 2020).
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mdpi.com/2673-1924/1/4/21
2️⃣ The Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 globally since 1990, mostly due to a downturn in North Pacific activity over the last decade.
ACE is a decent measure of tropical cyclone intensity and duration since it is the sum of the square of each storm’s maximum sustained wind speed over every six-hour period. If storms were becoming stronger, ACE would be increasing rather noticeably.
3️⃣ Globally, there has been no increase in the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) “rapid intensification” (RI)—defined as a ≥30-knot / ≥35-mph increase in maximum sustained wind speed within ≤24 hours—since 1990, as per data updated from Figure S1 in the Supporting Information document in to Klotzbach et al. (2022).
There has been an increase in extreme RI events—defined as a ≥50-knot / ≥58-mph increase in maximum sustained wind speed within ≤24 hours—but that is only a small subset of the total RI events, so it is largely irrelevant. Looking at total RI matters far more than cherry-picking the ≥50-knot / ≥58-mph events.
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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.…
4️⃣ And, lastly, regarding tropical cyclone rainfall, NOAA’s top two hurricane specialists, Drs. Chris Landsea and Tom Knutson, say that,
🗨 “[𝐴] 𝑑𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 ℎ𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑒-𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑛 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔-𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙.”
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climate.gov/news-features/bl…
Real-world data presents challenge for climate activists to sell their snake oil sales pitch, which is why they try to divert your attention away from hard data and focus it on modeling studies that ponder about hypothetical future scenarios that have a small chance of happening.