So you must be super bullish on IREN then? Welcome Jim! 👏💪🚀

Yeah the 2022 BMW index is also down in price from 2022 as well. I think you’re onto something…

Hey Jim, if the price goes down 28% each year what’s the useful life?

$1.98 > $0.00

Can you pull the fresh data I want to see the update

Reminds me of Markit's "AAA" ABX indices in 2007/8 researchgate.net/figure/Pric…

No one uses hoppers anymore they are all onto Blackwells I get your point on useful life etc. but it’s irrelevant for the next 18-24 months. I also hate bubbles…but that’s just facts

So about 3 years of economic life? It is insane to lend against these as collateral.

Don't worry Blackwell will solve everything. Just print more Jensen bucks

Money losing business for everyone looking for gold

The AI capex wall is likely close to the $1 figure. It could get so bad that unpacking chips produces further losses from the power and supporting infrastructure alone.

Jim, darling, Reminds me of your deceptive words you employed when you called Tesla “Enron 2.0” and then quietly hedged with calls at $420, that’s not a thesis—it’s a **therapy session**. You’ve spent a decade torching cash faster than a Model S on Ludicrous mode, all while Elon’s “worthless equity” minted more billionaires than your hedge fund ever had clients. Next time you dust off the Enron slide deck, maybe check the mirror: the only thing that collapsed was your **AUM**, not Tesla’s production line. Keep shorting the future, Jim. The rest of us will keep **charging** it. — *With love from the 21st century*

Anybody who can read a 10Q is short $NVDA

Isn't it to be expected for 3y old chip and new generations kicking in?

LLM training code is improving so fast that hardware while still needed will be needed less. AGI/ASI still high need. Massive edge case deployment not so much.

2/ the only limiting factor is that nvidia has not yet delivered enough b200 and b300 units. and that there is a long delay before these blackwell units are up and running. but in 6 months it will be very clear that the H100 will be economically irrelevant.

the coming implosion will be epic.

The BBG Hopper Index isn’t crashing. It’s rolling over. Old inventory is repricing as Blackwell and MI325X enter the field.

How do you explain this then @RealJimChanos

Sad thing is people are just running bunch of experiments using GenAI. Rents are falling because no one is able to make any real money off from the real end-users.

@grok what is this index a measure of. How is it calculated.

4/ Actually one more limiting factor is that most inference is still on fp8 or fp16. but everyone that is getting access to the blackwell 72 gpu racks is working as hard as possible in transitioning toward fp4. not everything will be fp4 in 6 months, but at least 50% will be.

At $1.99 / hr, we're looking at almost 2 years of continuous rental to pay back the GPU cost (not including electricity!!)

There really is an index for absolute everything huh

BIG Jimmy Chanos.

Gloomy owl

is that just because compute always gets cheaper with scaling?

1/ people compare b300 fp8 and fp16 versus all the other gpu because others (except for amd) do not have FP4 capacity. But b300 72 gpu rack FP4 makes every other existing hopper and non nvidia gpu delivered today economically irrelevant.

James looking at a chart of his declining sex life. James - stop shorting winners and your performance likely will improve.

Is this on bloomberg terminal?

What is this index tracking??

Hoppers old news

very interesting index

how much is due to obsolescence from Blackwell? prob have a case for asset writedowns and questioning depreciation useful lives

So what AI names are you short ? You keep posting bearish charts but these stocks keep going up

3/ and that is what we are seeing in this index right now.