🚨NEW: Russia bleeds tanks. We wanted to know how long Russia can hold out with the current losses, using heaps of old tanks from military bases. And used #AI to count & analyze fading tanks stocks. Visual investigation as @SZ_Investigativ together with @Se_Gier & @SZ visual team

Jun 26, 2024 · 3:56 PM UTC

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We looked at the biggest military bases on land, abt 87, to understand why experts say that out of 5 tanks Russia sends to the UKR font 4 are used/refurbished. "86% of 1530 tanks delivered were refurbished tanks from storage". Michael Gjerstad, @IISS_org. Stocks aren't bottomless
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We trained the AI model a few bases to recognize armored vehicles/tanks/IFV, which needed crisp satellite images. Helped by @Picterra, we trained & improved the model, so we can run it on many bases to understand the shrinking stock of vehicle types
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What experts at @IISS and @RUSI say - that the next two-year window will be crucial to show whether Russia can replenish tanks losses - mirrors our analysis: Fast shrinking & hyperdependence on old stocks, puts pressure on Putin, producing new tanks for the front
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We wondered why Russia takes heaps of rusting rotten tanks from wet military site, that according to @HighMarsed "didnt move for years". "Russia doesnt seem to attempt to hide their stocks and you can look into some bases in the street view on google maps or yandex maps"
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New tanks, Putin's keen to make. And fast. Many many of them. @Marina_Miron at the Department of War Studies King's College London tells us that Russia could face lacks in western components to do so. The only option: refurbish old ones...
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How jumpy & touchy the Kreml is right now, with their tank production ramp-up numbers  (& whether the pred. they share check out), some doubt. Case in point: Evan #Gershkovich who allegedly spied on Russian tank producer, facing 20 Years in prison bbc.com/news/articles/cd116x…

Evan Gershkovich: US journalist in court as spy trial starts in Russia

If convicted of spying, the US journalist could face up to 20 years in prison.

bbc.com
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In the end, big thanks goes to @picterra (which helped us and earlier the @nytimes reporing to count Gaza bomb craters) and @high_marsed for the support & explainer on the vehicle types and trends - Article here: sueddeutsche.de/projekte/art…

Putin gehen die Panzer aus

Analysen von Satellitenbildern offenbaren, dass die Bestände schwinden. Der Materialmangel wird für Russland zum ernsthaften Problem. Wie lange hält der Aggressor noch durch?

sueddeutsche.de
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
That’s a lot of beating around the bush. Can you give us some numbers?
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
I read the thread. No new info and no answers
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @Se_Gier @SZ
Great job, @SZ_Investigativ !
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Fakejournalisto perhaps? 🤷‍♂️
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
So basically you are saying you have nothing new to tell us. OK. Fair enough.
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
wE tRaiNed aN AI moDel to coUnt.... Real man, like @HighMarsed count by hand!
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Have you built another model with AI that tells you what you want to hear?
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
For actual numbers try @verekerrichard1 and @HighMarsed and @CovertCabal Extensive counts and charts of Russian vehicles and guns removed from maintenance yards over time.
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Not relevant as long as they keep production up and considering we constantly see trains with brand new T90s and T72s plus the workshops repairing armour at the front but lets say they did run out they'd just get tanks from China or Korea just like Ukraine begs for shit daily.
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @YoungDragon69 @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
@SCristobalJane
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
As long as they can manufacture enough shovels you will be in trouble.
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
@threadreaderapp pls unroll
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
@secretsqrl123
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Wenn man "Putin gehen die Panzer aus" titelt, dann wäre es etwas eleganter direkt dazu auch einen zerstörten Panzer zu zeigen (wie weiter unten geschehen). Zu sehen ist aber Artillerie in Form einer 2S19 Msta-S. Zugegebenermaßen klärt die BU auf.
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
They can hold it,apparently.
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
How does this look? Except for pink, those are units of 1000, 2000, etc.
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
😂😂😂
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
You saying AI makes me feel all warm and fuzzy. Needless to say, the entire analysis is bollocks.
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @YorukIsik @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Russia does not deploy the new tanks from UralVagonZavod, the current refurbished soviet tanks serve its purpose. In December 2023, then-defence minister Sergey Shoigu said 1,530 tanks had been delivered in that year refurbished Tanks R so yesterday, not a Russian priority
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
So u tellling me your western expert are lying about increase in russia equipment production issues a lie
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
ranslate text with your camera But Russia no longer has tanks, missiles, planes, etc., etc. from April 2022. That's what you "expert journalists" told us. Are there still suckers to believe your lies?
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
How long Russia can last respect to tanks?
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
CSIS gives an overview of the Russian defence industry. The West would lose an artillery war they conclude, needs more air defence systems. Overall western outlook is bleak. piped.video/watch?v=00tPLu0g…
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Tanks are useless in modern warfare.
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
You want more dead young people. You ignorant fool.
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Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
do you know how many tanks Russia has? "fading tank stocks" lol lol lol
Replying to @Techjournalisto @SZ_Investigativ @Se_Gier @SZ
In 2030 you people will still be counting how many tanks Russia has left 😂.
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