“You don’t have true product-market fit until it feels like you’re wearing a meat suit in a dog park” Amazing thread.

US home sales in 2025 look like they'll finish about 1-2% more than last year. Will that continue into 2026? Florida is most promising. Dallas, Charlotte and Denver are a little disconcerting... (content from a webinar I'm hosting for a few thousand Compass agents tomorrow)

“One day the toys will all be put away, the house still and quiet.” These words—from a video my friend @isaacfrench_ made for his wife—hit me hard this morning. 📢Parents of young kids, take it from me—a recent empty nester: The Good Old Days don’t feel like it at the time. It feels more like hard work and struggle. The days are long… But the years fly by. Then, one day you wake up and the house is still and quiet. One of my most cherished memories is coming home from work each day and opening the back door to our 1947 craftsman home. My 3-year-old daughter (now 20) would drop her toys and run down the hall—her footsteps booming on the old wood floor—to greet me. I love my life and don’t need to go back, but I do wish I could pass one message across time to 35-year-old me: You’re living the good old days right now. Savor every moment.

New evidence on the effect of cell phone bans in schools just dropped. "Enforcement of cellphone bans in schools led to a significant increase in student suspensions in the short-term ... but disciplinary actions began to dissipate after the first year, potentially suggesting a new steady state after an initial adjustment period." "We find significant improvements in student test scores in the second year of the ban after that initial adjustment period."

Over the last fifteen years, Reddit's relationship advice has shifted towards recommending: - Breakups - Boundaries - Therapy And against compromise, communication, and letting people have their space.

How Russia exposed Bitcoin as a US government $ devaluation scheme: “The U.S. is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Remember the size of their debt—35 trillion dollars. These two sectors (crypto and gold) are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system. Washington’s actions in this area clearly highlight one of its main goals: to urgently address the declining trust in the dollar. As in the 1930s and the 1970s, the U.S. plans to solve its financial problems at the world’s expense—this time by pushing everyone into the “crypto cloud.” Over time, once part of the U.S. national debt is placed into stablecoins, Washington will devalue that debt. Put simply: they have a $35 trillion currency debt, they’ll move it into the crypto cloud, devalue it—and start from scratch. That’s the reality for those who are so enthusiastic about crypto.” Putin’s advisor Kobyakov.

The deeper you go into the semiconductor supply chain, the less believable it becomes. > TSMC, a company on a small island, produces over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips > TSMC relies on dutch company ASML for EUV lithography machines > ASML depends on German Company Carl Zeiss, the only firm in the world capable of making mirrors precise enough for ASML’s requirements. > The light source for ASML’s EUV machines is produced by a single company in San Diego. > The photoresists used to print transistor patterns are produced by Japanese firms like JSR and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo. > The ultra-pure quartz needed to make silicon wafers comes entirely from a single mine in Spruce Pine, North Carolina. > The copper and rare-earth materials inside chips are mined and refined across Chile, the Congo, and China. > The specialized gases used in chipmaking, like neon and fluorine, largely come from Ukraine and Japan. > The design blueprints for these chips often come from American companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple, which rely on software tools from U.S. firms like Synopsys and Cadence. Remove any single piece and the whole system collapses.

Great to see President Biden, Dr. Biden, and their cat Willow today. Played chess against President Biden and discussed how we can move our country forward.

Rude prompts to LLMs consistently lead to better results than polite ones 🤯 The authors found that very polite and polite tones reduced accuracy, while neutral, rude, and very rude tones improved it. Statistical tests confirmed that the differences were significant, not random, across repeated runs. The top score reported was 84.8% for very rude prompts and the lowest was 80.8% for very polite. They compared their results with earlier studies and noted that older models (like GPT-3.5 and Llama-2) behaved differently, but GPT-4-based models like ChatGPT-4o show this clear reversal where harsh tone works better. ---- Paper – arxiv. org/abs/2510.04950 Paper Title: "Mind Your Tone: Investigating How Prompt Politeness Affects LLM Accuracy (short paper)"

Oh my god. My friend. Open your ear most wide. Japan yield go up very, very bad news. This piece of news mean we all soon go be only fan sIut sell picture of buthole for make money. Why? I explain > Japan go through deflation for much long time, maybe since 1980s. This mean their price of goods keep go down. Why? Low birth rate. >If everyone old, no one buy anything. If no one buy, price alway be low. >Japanese government then say, “okay, we print much money try make price go up”. >So Japan print much money, and also make interest rate be zero for long time. > all venture capital and hedge fund borrow Japan money, use for buy America asset > price for all asset in America go up > now Japan say “okay nigga, no more cheap money. Pay high yield now” > now all world hedge fund and private equity must sell asset for pay back borrowed Japan currency > now all asset price crash. Company no money. Cannot raise capital, must fire people > you and me must go on onlyfan sell buthole picture for not be starvation Oh no.

JUST IN: Jim Cramer has said he doesn't think a government shutdown will have a big impact on the stock market