SAM ALTMAN: “We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030. We are looking at commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years.” Altman officially confirming $20B of OpenAI FY 2025 revenues. Trying to combat the broader argument around lack of revenues vs the amount of spending commitments they have. If they can scale revenues to “hundreds of billions,” by 2030, one can try to make sense of the spending commitments.

Nov 6, 2025 · 8:33 PM UTC

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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Claiming twentyfold revenue explosion while locking in a trillion plus in buildouts feels like betting the entire farm on unproven miracles that rarely materialize.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Who is going to pay them hundreds of billions. And hundreds of billions in 2030 will not likely pay for AI infrastructure today. That’s why his CFO wanted government backed loans yesterday. Which is why he’s (unsuccessfully) trying to walk that back today. He’s not trustworthy and folks finally see it :(
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Altman would’ve never even had the opportunity to even imagine a future where OpenAi existed without Musk! Gotta give credit where credit is due 🤭
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In this episode of LARVOL Oncology Podcast, Bruno Larvol, along with Daniel J. and David Wilkerson, discusses the Pre-ESMO AI 2025 Insights and AI SoC mapping.

LARVOL Oncology Podcast | Ep 4: Pre-ESMO AI 2025 Insights

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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Run rate does not translate to revenue for a fiscal year. He says "we expect to end this year above a $20M annualized RR. This means they are still scaling revenue but Dec might cross $1.67B which would indicate a run rate of $20B. They do not have annual FY 25 revenue of $20B
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
20bn run rate...not 20bn for 2025. How you cannot see this for the massive joke it is, is quite surprising.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Translation: They expect a revenue spike in December based upon some arbitrary holiday season shopping derived traffic model. Sounds like about $1.5 billion dollars in December. Real run rate is sub $10 billion per year with dubious growth.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
i feel like GOOG is gonna cook OpenAI but that’s still bullish for AI and NVDA.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Even if he walks me thru detail plan of getting to 100's of billions in revenue in 4 years, I would still not trust him...he might just say they have a commitment of spending $10 T and he has a way to make Trillions in revenue 😅
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
How are they going to get to hundreds of billions in revenue? Increase prices? Can’t do that, lots of competitors Increase conversion? Doubt it, anyone willing to pay for AI probably already is Integrate Ads? Might help, but not hundreds of billions. You’re not Google.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Not even close to the amount of money they need for those commitments. BUT, there is so much more growth and endless avenues open ai could explore.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Everyone from Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Tesla, and many more are telling us they are struggling to scale for the compute demand. The demand exists, is 1.4T a lot and hard to imagine? Yes. Is 8 years a long period of time? Yes as well. We will see. If Sam was alone in saying this I’d doubt him a bit more.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Dawg.. isn’t it like already the end of 2025???? Shouldn’t they be at like $19B or are they still at $12 pre porn launch?
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
So they need to 5-10x revenues to justify all the spend… Risky.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
I'm going to have to pass on this IPO.....
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
I’m not buying what he’s selling.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
imagine a small business on shark tank saying there $20,000 in revenues with 10 million in losses will scale to hundreds of millions in revenue with no losses
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
I find it unlikely.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Take it with a mountain of salt 🧂
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
$20B is real, but those 8-year projections are investor theater. Remember when Meta spent $36B on the metaverse? Revenue targets that far out are fundraising tools, not forecasts. Watch the margin trend instead.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
You spelled scam Altman wrong
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
20B run rate is insane. $MSFT backing them hard
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Look out for that old “run rate” trick. Confidence trick
Replying to @amitisinvesting
The biggest “trust me bro” of all time
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Hope he has a money tree orchard
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Bro turned trillion into a timeline goal..
Replying to @amitisinvesting
20B run rate (1.6b a month) not same a 20b in 2025 rev
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
I think some of these numbers are exaggeration and will be hard to achieve. However, I think there's an effort to hype up the company by the CEO which helps with capital raises, and they need a lot of funding for at least next few years while they build out infrastructure. I'm already invested so fingers crossed they achieve at least half of that.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Sam Altman: - i will click my magic "get to hundreds of billions of revenue" button in 2030
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Yikes. Same revenue as H&M.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
sam 🫡
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
$20B revenue vs $1.4T in commitments - that's a 70:1 ratio of obligations to current income. Most companies go bankrupt with 3:1 leverage. Either this transforms computing forever or it's the most spectacular capital misallocation in tech history.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Wait a minute – don’t you have about $1 trillion worth of commitments already?
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
OpenAI will 100% go bankrupt. The rapid evolution of AI is a clear sign that this LLM will be outdated in no time.
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
No this is BS - they want to win at all costs, especially the tax payers! Evidence emerged of docusments outlining their government backing expectations and used war with China as the base justification. There are many American companies flying the flag for AI in the U.S. - not just “ClosedAI”
Replying to @amitisinvesting
Caveat Emptor!
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Replying to @amitisinvesting
Didn’t he just say his goal was cheap and accessible AI? That seems to contradict hundreds of billions in revenue
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