"people tend to overestimate what technology can achieve in one year, and underestimate what it can achieve in ten."
Knowing the endgame is useless; what matters is the path. This is especially true for the VR/AR industry.
It will take a long time for VR/AR to mature. The real value lies in figuring out what to do at each step. Since technology can’t be fully mature from the start, we must constantly search for the best balance between form and capability.
Early VR headsets overestimated users’ tolerance for bulky designs and were quickly corrected by the market. The glasses route, on the other hand, underestimated the appeal of the glasses form factor—so much so that something like Ray-Ban Meta, with just a few added functions, can sell very well.
The problem is that people tend to swing to extremes: sometimes over-ignoring form, sometimes over-emphasizing it.
Right now, I feel the pendulum is swinging toward over-emphasizing form. In the next two years, we may see a wave of glasses that look sleek but sacrifice too much capability, leading to disappointing user experiences. Meanwhile, some powerful VR headsets might actually be underrated.
Objectively speaking, both form and capability are important. There’s no shortcut; only time and technological progress can fuse the two together. But human nature always prefers shortcuts and leaps.
As the saying goes, people tend to overestimate what technology can achieve in one year, and underestimate what it can achieve in ten.