Printing money out of thin air and then distributing versus tariffs revenues are not same. One causes inflation and another doesn’t.

Scott Bessent is already in damage control, saying the $2,000 dividend Trump promised won't be a check 🤣

TRUMP ANNOUNCES $2,000 TARIFF DIVIDEND FOR AMERICANS President Donald Trump announced a $2,000 payment to most Americans, funded by U.S. tariff revenues. In a Truth Social post, he said the U.S. is collecting “trillions of dollars” in tariffs and will use the money to reduce national debt and reward citizens—excluding high-income earners. Trump called tariff critics “fools” and claimed the U.S. is now the “richest, most respected country in the world,” citing record stock markets and 401(k) values.

Great post by @radigancarter. When inflation accelerates, two things immediately go down: bond prices and public morals…. Inflation is the great destabiliser of healthy societies.

The AI Cycle has become *intractable* - and that's the problem. First Level On the first level, it's easy to consider and plot the interconnected relationships in Big Tech/AI. Company A invests in Company B, and the latter buys from the former - they call it "self-funded demand". And it doesn't get much more complicated than that on the first level. Second Level But as you add layers and levels, and with how interconnected things have become - things start to become intractable. We can't figure out how much demand is real, what's the actual utility behind it, how much it costs and if the buyer will ever really afford it. On top of that, we don't know if the consumption of the production is real either. The end consumers like the simple humans, the AI startups, the companies - can they afford it? Is the price REAL? Who is funding that? What's the ROI across the stack? Financial ROI, Utility ROI etc. How much of this dealmaking is for optics and/or initiated by Trump 2.0 to pump the markets and the economy? The above just in brief. I designed this model to try and explain the AI cycle, from early last year.

The government has played a role in critical infrastructure builds. Our public submission (posted on our blog) shares our thinking and suggests ideas for how the US government can support domestic supply chain/manufacturing. This is very in line with everything we have heard from the government about their priorities. We think US reindustrialization across the entire stack--fabs, turbines, transformers, steel, and much more--will help everyone in our industry, and other industries (including us). To the degree the government wants to do something to help ensure a domestic supply chain, great. This is part of a national policy that makes sense to me. But that's super different than loan guarantees to OpenAI, and we hope that's clear. It would be good for the whole country, many industries, and all players in those industries.

And now with all the Sam Altman controversy blowing up, does this mean $AMD is screwed? 🤔🤔

Not looking great for $AMD right now. I wonder if this was a trap set by Jensen!

$AMD x Open AI: Tied to the AMD hip! With the warrant deal for 160M AMD shares, two dynamics stand out 👇🦉 1) ALIGNMENT AMD just tied Open AI with its own stock. It is now greatly to Open AI's interests to complete the 6GW capacity deal because it comes (T&C apply) with a major sweetener: Almost $100bln in value (At $1trln market cap) via the 10% share in AMD. In addition, OAI is incentivised to *continue* the partnership with AMD *because* of that 10% stake. They are tied to the hip. OAI pulling back from AMD means they immediately suffer losses in their equity portfolio! *But not just any losses, read to the end to find out 2) ENABLING AMD has *enabled* OAI to complete the deal which will cost ~$90bln. OAI can go to their investors and say, look, I have 10% of AMD for free. Altman: “It’s not for nothing, habibi.” Investor: “Ok habibi… here’s another $10B.” 💰 BONUS OpenAI will probably use some tranches of the deal as collateral to finance the project via debt/hybrid instruments. This puts OAI in a sticky situation, if they pull back from AMD hurting the stock - their collateral shrinks in value Welcome to Sam Altman’s Margin Call.

AMD x OAI (x NVDA) $AMD $NVDA "Having a common cause with my enemy makes him my friend." -Jensen Huang, probably That’s exactly what happened between Nvidia, AMD, and OpenAI today. Let me explain my thoughts on the dynamics of this deal and what it means for this phase of the "Everything AI" cycle. A short thread 🧵

Basically, AMD is now an OpenAI proxy. If OpenAI goes down, AMD’s stock goes down with it. Simple as that.

My go-to short bucket when the AI tide turns... $PLTR real biz, unreal multiple, overhyped future $NVDA the central bank of AI, bound to drop $ORCL boomer proxy, renting GPUs at a loss $AMD effectively an OpenAI proxy now $CRWV grifty and over-levered hyperscaler sidecar $NBIS AI infra but without the enterprise customers Each stock has a different story, ADR and volatility so I will pick, choose and trade accordingly.

Oracle X Open AI deal is all hype and no substance. (I explain in the video why I think this is the peak) But it still gave $ORCL >$250bln in valuation... besides, that's what the game is about, not ROI. See the reply tweets for more context. cc: @agnostoxxx thanks for the BS-O-METER Shrub!

If it wasn’t for the AI CapEx investment (or should we say malinvestment that won’t generate adequate return on capital), the economy would probably be in a recession. Worst year in layoffs since the 2020 COVID and the GFC of 2008.

Hyperscalars are not spending more than they are earning.

$DUOL now a 6X since I wrote about it 3 years ago. Remember, even optionality lies on a spectrum... Optionality is NOT binary. Optionality has a price. philoinvestor.com/p/duolingo…

300K views, 1K Bookmarks, 1.5K Likes etc... Yet I wrote about $DUOL 3 years before Antonio... philoinvestor.com/p/duolingo… I guess the packaging REALLY matters on the interwebs!