Thoughts on my mind today 💭
📈 Most leaders of this rally have posted strong—and often better-than-expected—earnings.
🚧 Liquidity worries are real, but IMO they’re more of a speed bump than the end of the AI trade.
📅 Liquidity likely improves as we enter December.
🔗🦠 There’s definite contagion in crypto that can pressure equities, but stocks tend to work through it.
💽🚀 After Jensen’s comments about
$NVDA targeting ~$500B revenue over the next 5 quarters (through end-2026), I expect a beat and a guidance raise.
🛡️🪙 The market has a “Trump Put”; on crypto, actions/statements have clearly boosted sentiment many times and will continue most likely.
💵✅ I don’t recall a bull-market top marked by stellar beats and low/no-debt companies throwing off FCF. Tops usually come with misses and promises—not cash (think the 2021 EV bubble 🚗🫧).
💼📊⏳ Many underperforming fund managers still sit on cash and are hunting for one more dip before YE 2025—career risk + performance fees are powerful motivators.
Bottom line: 🛒🐂 I’ll be surprised if this dip isn’t bought—and if it ends up being the top of this bull market.
⚠️ Not financial advice.