Everyone is missing the real story here.
Burry made one legendary trade in 2008 and has been catastrophically wrong about literally everything since. He's called 15 of the last 2 crashes. This is the guy who has been screaming about imminent collapse for 17 years straight while the S&P tripled.
$1.1B in puts sounds scary until you realize he's had massive short positions on basically everything for the past decade. He shorted Tesla at $180. It went to $1,200. He shorted the market in 2010, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021. Wrong every single time. His fund has underperformed SPY by 40% since 2015.
The Big Short made him immortal but it also broke his brain. He found God once and has been searching for the Second Coming ever since. When your entire identity is built on one apocalypse trade, you see apocalypse everywhere. Confirmation bias doesn't just set in, it becomes your entire investment philosophy.
Here's the thing about Burry: he's not early, he's perpetually wrong. Being early and being wrong are only separated by time if you're eventually right. But when you've been calling for collapse every single quarter for 15 years, you're not early. You're a broken clock that thinks being right twice a day proves something.
Nvidia at 54x? Amazon traded at 100x for years and 10x'd from there. High multiples aren't crashes waiting to happen, they're the market pricing in asymmetric outcomes. Palantir at 449x is insane until you realize the entire defense and intelligence apparatus is getting rebuilt on their stack.
The energy math everyone's freaking out about? Data centers consuming 1% of global electricity? The internet consumed 10% at peak buildout. We built more power. We always build more power. Energy constraints are just infrastructure problems with a timeline.
His 2008 trade worked because he identified systematic fraud in loan underwriting. There's no fraud here. There's just expensive infrastructure for something that might actually work. Those are not the same trade.
The market dropped 2% when his position leaked then recovered by close. That's not validation. That's algos reacting to headlines before realizing Burry's been wrong about everything for 15 years.
He might be right this time. Broken clocks and all that.
But his track record says the real trade is fading the guy who's been wrong for a decade straight.
THE RECKONING
Michael Burry just bet $1.1 billion that the AI revolution is a lie.
Not the technology. The valuation.
Eighty percent of his entire portfolio now sits in put options against Nvidia and Palantir … the twin gods of the machine age. This is not hedging. This is conviction. The same conviction that made him $700 million when he shorted the housing bubble while the world called him insane.
Burry sees it again. The same fever. The same math that doesn’t work.
Nvidia trades at 54 times earnings. Historical baseline: 20. Palantir at 449 times. These are numbers that require perfection forever. Numbers that have never survived reality.
In 1999, tech stocks drove 80% of market gains before surrendering 78% in the crash. Today, AI commands 75% of S&P 500 returns. The script hasn’t changed. Only the costume.
Global AI spending has exploded to $200 billion annually … up 120% … yet productivity gains crawl below 20%. We are building cathedrals before we’ve proven the god exists. Fifty-four percent of fund managers now call this a bubble. Not pessimists. The people managing the money.
The energy math alone is apocalyptic. AI will consume 1% of global electricity by 2027. That’s $100 billion in costs against $200 billion in spending … before a single dollar of proven return.
Michael Burry isn’t betting against artificial intelligence. He’s betting against human nature … our willingness to mistake momentum for permanence, narrative for numbers, revolution for immunity from gravity.
Every transformative technology reaches this moment: where promise becomes price, where believers stop calculating and start crusading. Electricity was real. The market crash of 1929 was real. Both were true.
Palantir’s CEO calls Burry’s position “batshit crazy.” Of course he does. When you’re the priest, the skeptic is always the heretic. But Burry has already been the heretic once. He bought credit default swaps when Wall Street laughed. He walked out with generational wealth when Wall Street walked out with nothing.
This is $5 trillion in AI market value balanced on one assumption: that exponential curves never flatten, that competition never arrives, that margins never compress, that reversion to the mean died with the old economy.
It didn’t.
If Q4 earnings crack, if Nvidia’s 75% margins slip, if adoption stalls or chips supplies fracture … the unwind will reshape markets for a generation. Not because AI fails. Because math finally matters again.
Burry may be early. He usually is. But early and wrong are separated only by time.
And time has never lost.
The machine gods will endure. The question is whether their disciples will survive the fall.
Watch the margins. Watch the energy. Watch what happens when faith collides with physics.
History doesn’t repeat. But it rhymes.
And this verse sounds disturbingly familiar.