That break even date assumed no rate cuts
He built a pretty big business before and that is when they weren’t fully using Ai
I back @ericjackson - I really do - but @vishalgarg1_0 just isn’t convincing to me.
- 100% revenue growth (what’s the base?)
- profitability by 3rd quarter 2026 (that’s a year away - like who predicts that far into the future with such confidence in a market determined largely by the macro)
- leveraging the advances in AI (like give us an example, the way @CanadaKaz does specifically)
Good leaders inspire others. So many others at @Opendoor are speaking up about the excitement.
At Better, it’s someone who frankly hasn’t built anything he thinks is worth going through in detail.
The way engineers talk about their advancements, isn’t how Better communicates. I think if you read the annual reports (missing for last year?) there’s just a corporate feel in the complete lack of substance/direction/believability.
Like what do customers say? What talent are Better attracting? What is Tinman’s actual advantage?
Do you not know mortgage. No one has > 50%, not even close. Not rocket, not United.
It's public info on sec. I forgot the specifics, something like 10% refi volume in the us and 1.2b ARR and 200mil ebidta full year or first half or something. Feel free to go get the actual numbe
No I read their spac filing and older data a year+ ago and forgot the specific 2021 numbers. I remember the 2025 ones.
Can use edgar.
sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=18…
They were mostly a refi shop before. So when rates went up, they got crushed.
They pretty much started a turnaround by doing better purchase morg, helocs, have a local prescence (neo) and saas offering.
The biggest part I'm not too happy about is the saas offering progress thus far. It's been crickets.
But side from that heloc and neo are doing great along with an embedded refi business.
I totally agree, I support challenging and pushing on points. But frankly unless you are an activist, you are mostly a passenger along for the ride and either get on if you like it or get off if you dont. But the research and asking the hard question is ofc critical
So my reasoning is simple, I’m grateful to @ericjackson and want to protect his reputation. I think questions are warranted to help peel back layers.
He asked very hard questions of Opendoor management and got a wonderful set of results.
I don't want to get into it too much but $OPEN is an extremely questionable business. And he fully understands what he's doing.
So $7bn as an absolute valuation is sort of crazy. For sure.
But valuations are relative. I buy the @ericjackson case that this is a change the world opportunity on the ground floor.
They just gotta make it work.
I prefer cheaper companies like $betr with a strong founder CEO.
Time will tell.
Hugely respect your perspective which is why I am tweeting back in response.
You are right @rabois . $BETR does have serious competitors - 90% of which use tech platforms (eg encompass) built in the 1990s which doesn’t allow more than one user at a time in the customer file (you have to literally check out the file like a library book). Which fundamentally limits the usage of AI agents. That is why it costs an average mortgage company over $12k to make a mortgage while better is able to do it for less than 50% of that leveraging its AI with those costs declining rapidly every quarter since we launched Betsy our AI loan officer. See page 18 of latest earnings deck here for our cost per loan.
This allows us to have the lowest rates, the fastest process, and the lowest error and delinquency rates in the entire industry. If the market and consumers were rational , price driven and efficient we would have 100% market share. But we know that is not true.
What better has traditionally lacked is distribution (because of my mistake to keep betting on DTC when it was working 2016-2021).
Now we are fixing that.
The second issue with Better was the reliance on refinance from 2016-2021 to grow 100x from $500 mm to $58 bln in originations. We didn’t realize the level to which our TAM could shrink if rates went up 450bps.
Now with the addition of one day purchase mortgage (commitment letters delivered within 8 hours of locking on average ) and instant home equity financing - we have the capacity to capture 100% of the TAM every year, significantly muting the reliance on low rates. Our fastest growing business segments (home equity and tinman platform) actually benefit from higher rate environments. So now our TAM is not restricted to $400bln per year of refis but captures full ~$2 trillion of originations currently and the $4 trillion that will come if and when rates normalize.
Here’s the deck I referenced earlier: page 18 is the one to use to compare against the MBA average cost to originate
investors.better.com/overvie…
mba.org/news-and-research/ne…
Sep 27, 2025 · 7:11 PM UTC
