With their work to track fusion progress around the world,
@swurzel and
@ScottCHsu are playing a really helpful role in the effort to commercialize this new source of electricity. Their 2022 paper charting that fusion progress provides one of the best records of actual fusion performance among dozens of experiments by labs, universities, and companies. It truly is the scorecard for the plasma physics needed to make a fusion power plant.
And this week, they published a welcome update to that paper. On top of adding a lot of fresh data, it shows an encouraging level of agreement that transparency is important. I published an open letter last year calling on fusion companies to detail their progress on six milestones toward commercial fusion energy (
cfs.energy/news-and-media/bu…), and this paper from Scott and Sam can be used to track the first four of those.
Tracking that progress is important to let observers — investors, policymakers, journalists, and the public — get a better handle on what’s real progress and what’s merely hype. Ultimately, that more grounded assessment builds a foundation of trust in the fusion industry. The tables in their work are the ground truth of what people have actually done: peer-reviewed data.
There’s some notable information in the update to the paper. For one thing, it now shows the successful results at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) starting in 2022 that showed net fusion energy, known as Q>1, which means more energy came out of the fusion reaction than went into it. That’s an important scientific achievement — the fourth of my six milestones — and NIF is the only facility to reach it. In fact, they’ve made it to Q>4. Congrats to the
@Livermore_Lab for this achievement.
The paper also shows the progress at the Joint European Torus (JET) in the UK, a project that, like Commonwealth Fusion Systems, uses a fusion machine called a tokamak. JET is shut down now, but it produced record levels of fusion energy — 59 megajoules in 2021 and 69 MJ in 2023. You can now see those points just below Q>1, around Q~0.3.
You can also see some more data from some of the companies including
@Energy_Zap,
@TokamakEnergy,
@TAE, and
@GeneralFusion, showing how they're improving their performance. Kudos to them for showing their work.
Right now we’re building our own first tokamak, SPARC, and we expect it’ll be the first magnetic confinement machine to show Q>1. That’s because we have published predictions based on the existing science today. The update from Scott and Sam adds a new Fig. 4 that chronicles Q rising year by year, and we hope to see SPARC there in a future update.
You can read the new research here:
pubs.aip.org/aip/pop/article…
#FusionEnergy