Today's tariff ruling is much bigger than most people realize: If Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs, the US Treasury will face a MASSIVE refund liability. This potential liability is expected to be up to $1 TRILLION to importers. Why? Because, if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs are illegal, tariff payments are considered "wrongly collected taxes." These tariffs have been applied to 150+ countries and nearly every product. Today's ruling will reshape the global economy regardless of the direction it goes. Trump says it's "life or death" for the US.

Nov 5, 2025 · 7:04 PM UTC

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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Thats insane $1T in refunds to importers. But that’s money that’s already been spent in federal budgets... Then paying that back might mean larger deficits, higher Treasury issuance, or even short-term funding stress All of this push yields higher
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
But wait a minute, I’m the one who paid extra costs on all my purchases. Who’s gonna refund me? Don’t tell me I’ll get a $6 check in the mail. lol
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
This will be a MASSIVE boost to the American Economy. All that money back in the hands of American business owners will get back to growing and focusing on their business. We've been fighting to stay alive.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
OK and what about countries placing tariffs on us? Are those unlawful too?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
The idea that a Supreme Court ruling could create a $1 trillion refund liability highlights the absurdity of tariffs. If government intervention distorts markets, how can we expect genuine competition and innovation to flourish?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Striking down tariffs would force taxpayers to cough up a trillion in refunds to foreign profiteers, gutting our leverage and proving the court cares more about globalists than American workers.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
So if the US has to return tariffs, and tariffs are (allegedly) a tax on consumers, do the consumers get the money back? Or will it go bald to big business?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Just to be clear, a supreme court ruling is not expected today. Today is just oral argument.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
So other countries can levy high tariffs to the US but its illegal for us to do that to them? 😅
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
However, I lean toward the view that the economic boost from unburdening importers could outweigh the short-term fiscal strain. A lower cost structure for businesses often translates into broader consumer benefit over time, which is generally a positive development.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
FAFO. The treasury will just have to issue debt to raise the funds and the rates in the bond market will climb until the fed steps in to monetize under a new acronym. Oh and if we raised a trillion dollars via tariffs why did our debt go up by a trillion dollars at the same time?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
When will the ruling become public? My AIs says that it can drag out till June/July, but that seems insane given the stakes?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
$1T refund? Traders calling it “quantitative easing, judicial edition.”
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
But the people will love it. Our income tax refund checks will be huge and will get extra ones next week! Because won’t they have to reimburse us for the higher cost of everything that we’ve been having to pay as well as give the money back to the “reciprocal” country?
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
There is no ruling happening today. Oral arguments only. Expect a ruling around June 2026. Settle down.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, the U.S. could owe $1 trillion in refunds, crippling the Treasury. Trump’s tariffs protected jobs, reduced the trade deficit, and strengthened U.S. industry. This ruling truly impacts America’s economic future.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Nothing big. This ruling is against IEEPA. They don’t have to refund. There are more than 5 other laws that Trump can kick off and continue with the tariffs.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
If the Supreme Court overturns tariffs - it will be time to end the filibuster.
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Ah heck they’ll thread the needle like they always do and rule in what amounts to “what’s done is done but you can’t keep doing it.”
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
This ruling could reshape not only government finances but also trade strategies and market dynamics in the future. Businesses want predictability. Now, all those who shifted the supply chains may have to reverse everything. Costly!
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
How can the refund be 1 trillion if they haven't collected that much?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Furthermore, tariffs are borne by U.S. citizens; not one of those 150+ countries paid a single cent.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Imagine refunding a trillion dollars and calling it ‘a minor administrative adjustment.’
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
What's your prediction of the Supreme Court outcome?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
they will allow it for this reason alone
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
It will be Giga Bearish if they vote down the tarrifs.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
good, we can get a refund!
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
He should have thought of that before being illegal.
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
"the US Treasury will face a MASSIVE refund liability." Bond yields will go even more, they will skyrocket !
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Are they expected to rule on it today or just have a hearing?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
they don't decide today, it's just a hearing Decision is next year
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Refund. That will need a BIG PRINT
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
@grok when will we know the results?
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Because the judgment isn't issued right away in the first place. It's just oral arguments. It's not good to mislead people.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Trump worked hard to pull in $17 trillion for America. No one is taking that away.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
The key point is that it is a tax on importers plain and simple.
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